Euler Hermes > Economic research > Country Risks

COUNTRY RISKS

 

Country risk map

 

Euler Hermes monitors country risks in 241 countries and territories 

 
Our ratings aim to assess the risk of non-payment by companies in a given country, and thereby support our clients in making informed decisions about their international business activity. Our methodology consists of analyzing hundreds of economic indicators, both quantitative and qualitative, to provide the best understanding of the economic, political, business environment, commercial and financing risks.

 

Sources: Euler Hermes' country risk ratings as of 22/12/2015. GDP, per capita GDP and population data are from the International Monetary Fund.

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Country Reports

Euler Hermes Country Report is an in-depth economic research report that provides a review of an individual country's economic profile.

 
This analysis includes sections on economic strengths and weaknesses, country rating based on country grade and country risk level, main activity sectors and trade partners countries, economic forecasts and more.
 
General information, such as GDP, population, and form of government, is also included to provide a broader understanding of each country to support companies in identifying trade opportunities and associated risk. Euler Hermes releases new reports quarterly.
 

10 changes in country risk ratings Q4 2015

 

Upgraded Countries

Downgraded Countries

Ireland

Real GDP growth is strong (at +6% in 2015 and +5.0% in 2016), allowing a high growth for real GDP per capita. The fiscal deficit has rapidly fallen and debt sustainability has
improved thanks to high nominal GDP growth along with stronger competitiveness gains and better banking sector health.

Brunei

Crude oil and natural gas production represent 70%ofGDP and more than 90%oftotal exports. GDP growth decreased in 2015 (estimated -1.6%). General government net lending (-15% GDP) and current account balance (-3.1%GDP) deteriorated sharply in 2015. Risks are tilted to the downside with low commodity prices and low growth in external demand.

Cyprus

Cyprus should exit its international bailout programme by-mid 2016. The country lifted off capital controls in April 2015 and successfully returned to the bond markets with low interest rates. The economy has returned to growth, with GDP expected to rise by +1.5% in 2015 and +2% in 2016.

Chile

Export revenues have declined strongly due to low copper prices and China slowdown. The CLP has depreciated by -25% vs the USD since its last peak in July 2014. Tightening monetary policy is leading to a rise in interest rates and a credit slowdown. Economic growth will remain slow, around +2% in 2015-2016.

Côte d'Ivoire

In October 2015, the country held presidential elections deemed free and fair. This should engender a period of heightened stability and Côte d’Ivoire could regain its status as an economic power in West Africa. GDP growth is forecast to reach +7% or above in 2016 and 2017.

Colombia

Export revenues have declined strongly due to the fall in oil prices and to weak developments in neighbouring Ecuador and Venezuela. The COP has depreciated by -50% against the USD since the last peak in July 2014. Economic growth will remain below 3% in 2015-2016.

Honduras

Accompanied by the IMF and benefiting from low oil prices, the government is enhancing fiscal and external positions. Economic growth is set to remain solid in coming years, benefiting from low oil prices, the recovery in the US (remittances, exports) and increased FDI inflows. Business confidence is improving

Ecuador

Economic output has been hit by falling oil prices, which accounts for 50% of exports. The economy is forecast to enter recession, with GDP contracting by -1.1% in 2016. Due to dollarization, the Fed’s rate hike will affect credit growth and export competitiveness.

Oman

Oil accounts for around 50% of GDP and 80% of government receipts. Low energy prices will lead to large fiscal and current account deficits. High state spending will be managed by increasing public debt. GDP growth will be capped at +4% in 2015-17.

 

South Africa

Structural rigidities limit the economy’s growth. These include, for example, the lack of skilled labour, limited job creation, infrastructure bottlenecks, and continuing balance of payments restraints. GDP is in a protracted period of low growth, and is expected to reach +2% in 2016 and 2017


   

A
Algeria
Country report for AngolaAngola 
Country report for ArgentinaArgentina 
Country report for AzerbeijanAustralia
Country report for AzerbeijanAustria
Country report for AzerbeijanAzerbaijan 

 

B
Country report for BarhainBahrain 
Country report for bangladeshBangladesh 
Country report for BelarusBelarus 
Country report for BelgiumBelgium 
Country report for BoliviaBolivia (updated)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 
Country report for BrazilBrazil 
Bulgaria 
Country report for Burkina FasoBurkina Faso 

 

C
Cambodia 
Cameroon 
Canada
Country report for ChiliChile (updated)
Country report for ChinaChina
Colombia (updated)
Congo 

Country report for Czech republicCongo Democratic Republic
Costa Rica 

Country report for Ivory CostCôte d'Ivoire (updated)
Country report for CroatiaCroatia 

Country report for CroatiaCuba
Cyprus (updated)
Country report for Czech republicCzech Republic 

 

D
Denmark 
Dominican Republic 

 

E

Ecuador (updated)
El Salvador (updated)
Egypt
Estonia (updated)
Ethiopia (updated)

F
Country report for franceFinland
Country report for franceFrance 


G

Gabon (updated)
Country report for germanyGermany 
Ghana 
Country report for greeceGreece 
Guatemala (updated)

H

Honduras (updated)
Hong Kong 
Country report for HungaryHungary 

I
Iceland (updated)
Country report for irelandIreland  (updated)
Country report for IndiaIndia 
Indonesia 
Iran 
Iraq
Israel (updated)
Country report for italiaItaly 

 


Japan
Jordan 

 

K
Kazakhstan 
Kenya
Country report for KuweitKuwait

 

L
Country report for LaosLaos 
Country report for LatviaLatvia (updated)
Country report for LebanonLebanon 
Lithuania (updated)

Luxembourg (NEW)

 

M
Country report for MalaysiaMalaysia 
Mali (updated)
Malta (updated)
Mauritius 
Mexico 
Country report for MoroccoMongolia 
Country report for MoroccoMorocco 
Mozambique (updated)
Myanmar 

 

N

 

 

O
Country report for OmanOman (updated)

 

P
Pakistan 

Country report for PanamaPanama (updated)
Paraguay
Country report for PeruPeru 
Philippines (updated)
Country report for PolandPoland 

Country report for PortugalPortugal 

 

 

Q
Country report for QuatarQatar 

 

R
Romania 
Russia 
Rwanda

 

S
Saudi Arabia 
Country report for SenegalSenegal 
Country report for SerbiaSerbia 
Country report for SingaporeSingapore 
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Country report for South AfricaSouth Africa (updated)
South Korea 
Country report for SpainSpain 
Sri Lanka
Sweden
Switzerland

 

T
Taïwan 
Country report for TanzaniaTanzania 
Thailand (updated)
Trinidad & Tobago (updated)
Tunisia 
Country report for TurkeyTurkey 

 

U
United Arab Emirates 
Uganda (updated)
Ukraine 
Country report for United-KingdomUnited Kingdom 
Country report for Untied-StatesUnited States (updated)
Uruguay 

 

V
Venezuela 
Vietnam (updated)