Euler Hermes Country Report is an in-depth economic research report that provides a review of an individual country's economic profile.
This analysis includes sections on economic strengths and weaknesses, country rating based on country grade and country risk level, main activity sectors and trade partners countries, economic forecasts and more.
General information, such as GDP, population, and form of government, is also included to provide a broader understanding of each country to support companies in identifying trade opportunities and associated risk. Euler Hermes releases new reports quarterly.
10 changes in country risk ratings Q4 2015
Real GDP growth is strong (at +6% in 2015 and +5.0% in 2016), allowing a high growth for real GDP per capita. The fiscal deficit has rapidly fallen and debt sustainability has
improved thanks to high nominal GDP growth along with stronger competitiveness gains and better banking sector health.
Crude oil and natural gas production represent 70%ofGDP and more than 90%oftotal exports. GDP growth decreased in 2015 (estimated -1.6%). General government net lending (-15% GDP) and current account balance (-3.1%GDP) deteriorated sharply in 2015. Risks are tilted to the downside with low commodity prices and low growth in external demand.
Cyprus should exit its international bailout programme by-mid 2016. The country lifted off capital controls in April 2015 and successfully returned to the bond markets with low interest rates. The economy has returned to growth, with GDP expected to rise by +1.5% in 2015 and +2% in 2016.
Export revenues have declined strongly due to low copper prices and China slowdown. The CLP has depreciated by -25% vs the USD since its last peak in July 2014. Tightening monetary policy is leading to a rise in interest rates and a credit slowdown. Economic growth will remain slow, around +2% in 2015-2016.
In October 2015, the country held presidential elections deemed free and fair. This should engender a period of heightened stability and Côte d’Ivoire could regain its status as an economic power in West Africa. GDP growth is forecast to reach +7% or above in 2016 and 2017.
Export revenues have declined strongly due to the fall in oil prices and to weak developments in neighbouring Ecuador and Venezuela. The COP has depreciated by -50% against the USD since the last peak in July 2014. Economic growth will remain below 3% in 2015-2016.
Accompanied by the IMF and benefiting from low oil prices, the government is enhancing fiscal and external positions. Economic growth is set to remain solid in coming years, benefiting from low oil prices, the recovery in the US (remittances, exports) and increased FDI inflows. Business confidence is improving
Economic output has been hit by falling oil prices, which accounts for 50% of exports. The economy is forecast to enter recession, with GDP contracting by -1.1% in 2016. Due to dollarization, the Fed’s rate hike will affect credit growth and export competitiveness.
Oil accounts for around 50% of GDP and 80% of government receipts. Low energy prices will lead to large fiscal and current account deficits. High state spending will be managed by increasing public debt. GDP growth will be capped at +4% in 2015-17.
Structural rigidities limit the economy’s growth. These include, for example, the lack of skilled labour, limited job creation, infrastructure bottlenecks, and continuing balance of payments restraints. GDP is in a protracted period of low growth, and is expected to reach +2% in 2016 and 2017