Economic Outlook

 

​This monthly publication provides our clients with our latest macroeconomic and insolvency forecasts by country and sector and addresses risks and opportunities in emerging trends such global trade, reindustrialization and the green economy.


Companies are having an early start at their own Olympics​

On a quarterly basis, Euler Hermes measures sector risk for 18 sectors in 72 countries. In 2015, out of 1300 industries (country x sector), we recorded 148 industry downgrades for only 76 upgrades. From Metal in the United States to Food in Turkey to Construction in Saudi Arabia (which went from low risk to high risk in less than a year), 2015 marked a year of renewed non-payment risk for many sectors which were already fragile. 
 
 
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The 7 dwarfs of global growth

Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook

How will the world economy perform in 2016? In a new report titled “The 7 dwarfs of global growth”, the Economic Research team at Euler Hermes identifies seven key drivers of growth that are too small. This edition of the Economic Outlook explores and analyzes trends in trade, consumerism, investment, insolvencies and other crucial elements of GDP growth. It calls for caution in the face of the “Evil Queen of insolvencies”. One reason for cautious optimism: the “Snow White” of investment is finally reawakening. The report also focuses on regions and hotspots, including China, Brazil, the oil supply glut and commodity prices. It offers a new country risk map and charts, including one that summarizes emerging markets' exposure to Fed interest rate hikes, commodity exports and China. 

 
 
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The insolvency U-Turn

Business insolvency worldwide

This year will be remembered as a turning point: the world realized emerging markets are called emerging for a reason. After a five-year ​love story with the fatest-growing part of the world, time has come for a reality check.
 
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Automarket - a live wire

Special Report

Things are going amazingly (too) fast in today’s world of disruption. The collaborative consumer is king. The Sharing or On-Demand economy and digital transformation – simply the tip of the iceberg – are just a few of the developments that are knocking traditional industries off course. At a time when the NATU (Netflix, Airbnb, Tesla and Uber) are overtaking the GAFA (Google, Amazon, Facebook and Apple), with regulators, tax specialists and policy-makers not knowing which way to turn and emerging El Dorados seen reaping the advantages of backwardness (rejecting a conventional form of industrial revolution and skipping straight to the latest technological breakthrough), while the automotive sector is certainly on the road to recovery, it could be in for a rough ride.


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Riding into risks or recovery ?

Macroeconomic Country Risk and Global Sector Outlook

Doing business is like riding a bicycle: to keep your balance
you must keep moving; and it has been quite a mud run
lately! Companies have for a long time realized that they
have to fight relentlessly to avoid getting bogged down by
political turbulence, liquidity freeze and bewildering confidence
headwinds.
 

Focus on the Signal and Ignore the Noise

Macroeconomic Country Risk and Global Sector Outlook

We are almost there! After six years of intense depression, it seems that a weaker euro, lower oil prices and cheap financing costs are doing the trick - the largest economy in the world, Europe, is finally on the mend. It did not come at zero
cost for companies and households, but we should rejoice of finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. In the meantime, the world has changed dramatically.

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Global Trade: What's Cooking?

Special Report

Like a cyclist against the wind, global trade has been fighting an uphill battle. Yes, the outlook does look better overall and trade-gnation sounds like old news, but competition is fierce. Trade is like a marathon; there are front runners and laggards, hungry competitors, those who burn out and those who fade away. Will eager nations catch up? Will outsiders once again change the rules of the game?​
  
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Overview 2015 Not such a Grimm tale but no fabled happy ending

Special Report

As the nights become increasingly dark, at least in the northern hemisphere, those of us with children may pass the time telling fables and short-stories by the fireplace – heaters work too. Euler Hermes’ seven fairy tales on the 2015 economic outlook is a Tiger Mom’s best companion to start (albeit very early) the development of her child’s economic skills. It all starts with: Once upon a time in a global economic mess, and ends with and the Central Banker lived happily ever after.
  
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International debt collection: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Special Report

International debt collection is never the same. Its complexity depends on many factors including one’s relationship with its client. Even though there is a country-specific legal backdrop for collecting your dues (see summaries of Euler Hermes’ country collection profiles that appear in the margins of this report), collection can be summarized in three steps.

  
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A rotten apple can spoil the barrel: Payment terms, past dues, non-payments and insolvencies: What to expect in 2015?

Business Insolvency Worldwide

As we are all closing our books for 2014, it is time to take stock on what has happened for businesses around the world, especially when it comes to past dues, non-payments and insolvencies. We have good news: worldwide, insolvencies decreased by -12% this year and past dues have also decreased for the first time since 2011 by almost -30%.
  
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The Global automotive market: Back on four wheels - Sept 2014

Amid geopolitical crises, confidence shocks, and false starts for growth, the disarray seems to be undermining the timid recoveries in most economies since the start of the year. And yet the automotive market seems to be getting its color back. When we look at global production, it seems the crisis has (finally) been erased and auto makers are returning to pre-2009 annual growth rates of around +4%.
 
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Growth: A giant with feet of clay - July 2014

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The purpose of a business is to grow. This can come in many forms— profits, revenues, market share, brand or community influence. It sounds easy enough, but it's not. Underlying factors can make growth difficult: rapidly changing customers, a softer market, and of course fragile economic policies.

 

> See our Risk Map 2014

 

> See our Risk Sectors map Q2 2014

 

> See our Infographic

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Insolvency World Cup 2014: Who will score fewer insolvencies ? - May 2014

You thought the World Cup would take place in Brazil this year, right? Well we decided otherwise. As flight tickets were too expensive to send the entire team to Brazil, we created our own World Cup with homemade FIFA spreadsheets. Goals are slightly different for our first Euler Hermes Insolvencies World Cup, the objectives is indeed to score fewer insolvencies!

 

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Hot, bright and soft spots: Who could make or break global growth? - March /april 2014

While emerging economies remain the primary contributors to global growth, expectations have dampened on the back of the sharp revision of Russia’s growth prospects as well as slowing growth outlooks for Brazil, Turkey and South Africa

 

Hot, bright and soft spots: Who could make or break global growth? – March/April 2014 Download the Economic Outlook   Economic Infographic View Infographic
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