Abolition of RUSF payments to boost exports to Turkey by USD20.2bn in 2015-2016

7/9/2015 - Report
ic_blogtagTurkeyAgrifoodTextileTransportationBusiness ClimateExportsInsolvencySector RiskTrade
A significant import barrier, the Resource Utilisation Support Fund (RUSF) payment, 6% of the value of all imported goods, was abolished for around half of Turkish imports in April 2015. This policy change should boost the volume of imports (+2.5pps in 2015), exports (+1.7pps) and investment (+2.2pps) while the impact on GDP growth will be modest (+0.1pps), due to a worsening of net exports.

We expect new market opportunities (USD20.2bn) for exporters to Turkey, with Russia (+2.1bn USD), China (+2.1bn USD) and Germany (+1.9bn USD) being the main beneficiaries. However, non-payment risk will also increase by an estimated +10% in Turkey in 2015.

In turn, we also expect broad-based gains in the value of Turkish exports which should increase by USD9.5bn in 2015-2016, with the largest export gains coming from Germany (+0.9bn USD), the UK (+0.7bn USD) and the U.S. (+0.5bn USD). Textile and agrifood which account for 35% of the export gains, along with transportation which will benefit the most from rising investments are three key winners of the RUSF abolition.

Download the document
Abolition of RUSF payments to boost exports to Turkey by USD20.2bn in 2015-2016 - Report