Brexit me if you can: Companies to suffer the most

11/30/2015 - Report
ic_blogtagWestern EuropeUnited KingdomBrexitExportsGrowthIndustryInsolvencyInvestmentTrade
Increasing uncertainty around Brexit will affect sentiment and might delay investment decisions. We expect GDP to grow by +2.1% in 2016 and +1.9% in 2017, 0.1pp below our previous forecasts due to uncertainty.

In case of a Brexit, companies' turnover growth could be halved, if an FTA with the EU is signed, and contract without one.

Three transmission channels explain this doom and gloom scenario for companies: direct export losses, falling margins (due to higher input and financing costs) and divestment.

Export losses could reach GBP30bn in the worst case scenario: it would take 10 years for the UK to fill the gap. Margins could fall by up to 2 points on the back of higher input costs and tighter financing conditions. Last, up to GBP210bn of foreign investment could be lost in the next 4 years following the referendum, with the financial sector being hit the most.The financial, automotive, machinery and equipment, chemicals, agrifood, textile and energy sectors would be affected the most.

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Brexit me if you can: Companies to suffer the most - Report