​Despite substantial political risks financial markets are rushing from one high to the next. We find that improving economic momentum indicators since mid-2016 largely swamp political worries, while the impact of monetary policy on the risk-return expectations is still dominant. The disconnect between political uncertainty and market performance is unlikely to last. Monetary stimulus will be withdrawn. The recovery will peak at one point. Assuming that the political risk level will remain high, markets will reconsider, although an immediate sharp reaction looks unlikely.​ 

 

Chief Economist
Ludovic joined Euler Hermes as Chief Economist in 2011. He also heads macroeconomic and thematic research for Allianz SE globally since 2017. Ludovic sits on the Board of Directors of Solunion, Euler Hermes’ joint venture company for Spain and Latin America.