The Price of Growth

8/1/2016 - Report
ic_blogtagEconomic OutlookCashCentral BanksEmerging MarketsGrowthPriceTrade
Global growth could slow this year to +2.4% and might accelerate marginally in 2017 (+2.7%).

The slowdown in prices has pushed down nominal growth, turnovers, and trade both domestically and abroad.

This priceless growth is set to cause a rise in insolvencies by +1% this year and in 2017: the first rise since the great recession.

Two reasons: (i) first, the difficulty to deleverage while debt overhang is important in countries like Brazil and China and sectors such as utilities; and (ii) second, commodities related sectors and countries are still at risk.

Subdued prices (and yields) generate both winners and losers. Net consumers, importers, and debtors benefit from low prices, while net producers and exporters, savers and creditors are having a hard time.

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The Price of Growth - Report