• ​Global GDP growth is expected to end up at +2.5% in 2016, showing resilience in spite of the many economic and political hurdles. In 2017, growth should pick up to +2.8%, staying below +3% for the seventh consecutive year. 
 
  • The US would benefit from a fiscal boost pushing growth to +2.4% in 2017. After a year of uncertainty and economic pause, the aftermath of the election is already bringing confidence back. The active policy-making should spur private investment if political noise, tighter financing conditions, and renewed protectionism are contained. 
 
  • The Eurozone will grow +1.6% in 2017. It will continue to face its usual set of teething troubles from Brexit and the Italian banks situation to a busy election year in key countries. Strong institutional stopgaps (accommodative monetary policy, fiscal stimuli, and European programs) will help contain risks. 
 
  • China will address its fragilities such as credit risk and excess capacities to avoid volatility. Yet strong public support and cautiously accommodative monetary policy will help reach +6% growth this year. 
 
  • In emerging markets, the absence of a broad-based acceleration will increase selectivity. Private sector spending will be pivotal in some countries (e.g. Russia and India). The business cycle may be limited by ongoing adjustments in others ( Brazil and South Africa), while another group of countries may even face growing imbalances (Mexico, Turkey). 
 
  • Reflation, isolationism for trade and financial flows, along with policy nudges, will shape most of 2017-18 risks and opportunities for businesses around the world.