As governments race to contain new and more contagious variants of Covid-19, health passports will not be enough to revive tourism. According to Euler Hermes, the tourism industry could only see a recovery only in 2024.
Euler Hermes predicts that European countries could experience a faster tourism recovery than the United States and the Asia-Pacific region. We can expect a timid recovery in the tourism industry from 2022. While Europe will experience a strong recovery in tourism from 2023, the US and APAC will have to wait until 2024.
Europe will return to a pre-crisis level in 2024 with 771 million expected international tourist arrivals, more than triple than the all-time low of 2020 (227 mn compared to 744 mn in 2019). Europe will strengthen its leading position with 55% market shares in 2024, +4% than before the crisis.
When looking at the different sub-sectors, Euler Hermes finds that only domestic leisure could return to a pre-crisis level by 2022. The expected rise of global unemployment will also worsen the difficult situation of the tourism sector, with consumers likely to curtail expenditures on tourism-related activities.
The Covid-19 pandemic could put an end to globalised tourism and travel for quite a long time, forcing tourism and travel-related players to transform their business models.