Except for the employment report, much of the recent data on the US economy has been soft. Two more came out this morning. While it’s only one month, the data is weaker than we might have expected given our scenario of good growth for most of the year, but a possible recession in Q1 2020.
The US Treasury yield curve inverted on Friday, meaning that short term interest rates became higher than long-term rates, the opposite of their normal relationship.
This month’s employment report shows unexpected and conflicting results and presents a perfect opportunity to explain how it is produced.
Since 1996, Dan North has been with Euler Hermes, the world’s oldest and largest credit insurance company. As the company’s chief economist for North America, he uses macroeconomic and quantitative analyses to help manage Euler Hermes’ risk portfolio of more than $250 billion in annual trade transactions within the region.
As one of the leading U.S. economists, Dan North has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business News, ABC News Now, France 24, and Bloomberg Radio and Television. He has been quoted by USA Today, Barron’s, Bloomberg Business Week, The Washington Post, Paris Le Monde, and The Wall Street Journal. After having predicted the 2008/2009 recession and its implications accurately, Dan North was ranked 4th on Bloomberg’s list of the 65 top economic forecasters in 2010.