Economic Content

U.S. Blistering Hot Employment Report

This morning’s employment report for March shows that the breakout expected for this year is indeed underway. This will be a very good year with GDP growth of a rousing 5.3%.

Economic Update: Consumers Roaring into Spring 2021

In his latest blog post, Dan North, Chief Economist of Euler Hermes, Americas, looks at data indicating the U.S. consumer is starting to awake after a long winter’s sleep.

Ask an Economist: What’s Next for the Economy?

During our recent webinar, Dan North talked through his outlook for 2021, the current vaccine rollout, and developments in consumption, housing, manufacturing, and employment.

Review of Feb. 2021 Employment Report

As previously noted, this February's US employment report showed a strengthening economy. It was the best report in five months

US: Consumers went on an Unexpected Rampage in January

The US consumer came roaring back with a vengeance in January as retail sales sky-rocketed 5.3% m/m, far beyond expectations of 1.2%. It was the first gain after three consecutive months of losses.

Jobs: Sharp Downward Revisions In The US, An Outright Plunge In Canada

The economy created +49k jobs in January, right around expectations. However the report was not nearly as strong as it looked. The employment situation in Canada took quite a grim turn for the worse, losing a huge -213k jobs in January.

Good Riddance to the Last Data of 2020.

Ever since March, Americans have been saving much more of their income than usual. It is expected that as the weather gets warmer, and as Covid becomes more under control, consumers will go on a delightful spending spree.

US: Another Round of Stimulus

As we know, the Federal Government has used fiscal stimulus to help support the economy which has been devastated by Covid. Now another round of stimulus, the American Rescue Plan (ARP), is on the table for $1.9 trillion, and if you add those three up you get to $5.2 trillion dollars.

US: Jobs go Negative, Worse than Expected

The employment report for December was a nasty surprise. The consensus expectation had been for a gain of 50k jobs, but we had expected there would be a loss in jobs, maybe as much as -50k. Instead it was substantially worse at -140k.

US: Retail Sales Terrible, but a New Year is Coming

As we expected, retail sales were terrible in November, falling -1.1% m/m, far worse than consensus forecasts of -0.4%.

October US Employment Report

The October 2020 employment report was very strong all around. The economy gained 638,000 jobs vs expectations of 530,000, while the unemployment rate plummeted from 7.9% to 6.9%, much better than expectations of 7.6%.

Looking Past the Election

Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which drive 70% of US economic activity rose 1.2% m/m in September. That was a bit better than August but way down from 8.5% in May and 5.9% in June.

Dan North

Economic Analysis: US Q3 GDP Report & Looking Ahead

Q3 revealed strong domestic demand, but the rebound is short-lived as Q4 macroeconomic conditions are much less favorable for growth. With the absence of any new fiscal stimulus before year-end, the progress of the US job market stalled, and political uncertainties underway, the recovery should be much slower in Q4 2020.

Outcome of the US Elections

The U.S. elections will spark a period of high uncertainty and market volatility until the end of the year. Choosing between the two candidates will mainly mean choosing be-tween a bigger or smaller federal government.

Fed Expects to Keep Rates at 0% into 2023

At its Wednesday meeting, the Fed suggested that it is likely to hold interest rates near 0% through 2023. It was the first meeting since Powell’s Jackson Hole speech when he announced the policy shift to “inflation targeting” which effectively focuses on pushing inflation up.