Economic Update: Good News in General, Concerns on Inflation
There is a lot of good news. The high-frequency indicators are showing a rebound in Q4. The October employment report was very strong, and very good news. But we still have a long way to go in the labor market, and the supply/demand imbalance is clearly driving wage inflation which is showing up in many measures
Overall, the US economy is still in very good shape – despite the mixed news. We expect strong growth for the rest of this year into next year. However, will the combination of recent inflation, the Delta variant, and slowing vaccinations knock the forecast down some?
Jobs: Sharp Downward Revisions In The US, An Outright Plunge In Canada
The economy created +49k jobs in January, right around expectations. However the report was not nearly as strong as it looked. The employment situation in Canada took quite a grim turn for the worse, losing a huge -213k jobs in January.