November 28 2018 • Jon Hammond
On September 24, 2018, global oil prices hit a four-year high of $81.20/b (Brent) after OPEC promised to keep production steady. Investors believed that U.S. sanctions against Iran and outages in Venezuela would lead to supply shortages. But by mid-November, prices fell 18 percent, and have continued a decline.
November 28 2018 • Euler Hermes
The energy markets are driven by liquidity. Counterparty, credit, and market liquidity are all significant to operations in both the real-time and long-term regimes. All of these types of liquidity are balanced against the seemingly endless list of risk categories. Fundamentally, clearing risk hurdles allows for access to liquidity which in turn promotes growth.
November 26 2018 • Euler Hermes
The holiday sales period is here, and for many retailers, it’s make-or-break time for the year.
November 07 2018 •
The midterm elections and the resulting Democratically controlled House does not change our US economic outlook. GDP is still expected to grow by 2.9% in 2018, and 2.5% in 2019. However, businesses could be affected by policy shifts in six areas: infrastructure spending, regulation, taxes, public budget, trade and immigration.
September 26 2018 • Dan North
As expected the Federal Reserve raised the Fed Funds rate from a range of 1.75%-2.0% to a range of 2.0%-2.25%. The “dot plot” showed that 12 of 16 FOMC members now believe that the Fed Funds rate at the end of 2018 will be in the range of 2.25%-2.50%, strongly implying that another hike in December is very likely.
August 30 2018 • Dan North
In addition to yesterday’s upgrade to GDP, the same report showed a sharp uptick in y/y profits to 16.1%, the most in 6.5 yrs. Apparently the corporate tax cut helped because taxes have now fallen a steep 33% y/y, the most in 9.5 years.
August 06 2018 • Euler Hermes
Wouldn’t it be better to avoid a non-payment situation in the first place? Start overhauling your organization’s AR risk position with these solutions. Move from reaction to pro-action like never before.
July 09 2018 • Euler Hermes
What would happen if you lost your biggest client or if your industry gets hit with an economic downturn? Don't risk your business for the sake of comfort.
June 12 2018 • Euler Hermes
Self-insuring may come without a direct cost, but remember, unpaid invoices weaken your cash flow and those additional costs will add up quickly. How many opportunities are you missing by self-insuring?
As the holiday season starts, it’s time to reflect on what 2018 brought to us, and what 2019 holds in store. Looking back we can see the end of synchronization, more populism, selectivity in a volatile environment, and the end of easy money.
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We see global growth remaining on a healthy trajectory in 2019, despite the multiplication of risks. Read the quarterly update of our Global Economic Outlook.
The economy is on course of slipping into a technical recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of negative q/q growth), as expected, as real GDP contracted by -1.1% q/q in Q3.
The yellow vest movement already took its toll on consumer spending which is now likely to decrease by -0.2% q/q in Q4 (as in Q2, after some previous strikes).