Vietnam: Beneficiary from U.S.-China trade war?>
Initial estimates put Q2 real GDP growth at +6.7% y/y, slightly down from +6.8% in Q1.
Malaysia: Growth slows gradually but remains robust overall
Real GDP growth eased to +4.5% y/y in Q1 from +4.7% in Q4 2018. The slowdown was mainly due to a -3.5% drop in fixed investment in Q1, after an already tepid increase of +0.6% in Q4.
Australia: Monetary easing needs fiscal stimulus on its side
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA, the central bank) cut its key policy interest rate by 25bp to an all-time low of 1.25% in early June and indicated in the minutes (released this week) that a further cut is on the horizon.
Thailand: Losing momentum
Q1 real GDP growth decelerated to +2.8% y/y (+3.6% in Q4) as sluggish external demand hit exports (-4.9% y/y).
Emerging Markets: Under pressure
The economic cycle of Emerging Markets (EM) is currently deteriorating fast, indicated by our aggregate EM manufacturing PMI falling to 49.6 points in May, back below 50 (recession area) for the first time since August 2016.