February 21 2019 • Stéphane Colliac, Alexis Garatti, Gregor Eder
In the last quarter of 2018, both the German and French economies observed a significant deceleration of growth. Going forward, both countries have the following elements on their watchlist: political instability, trade uncertainty, and the regulatory shock in the auto industry for Germany.
February 14 2019 • Eric Barthalon, Alexis Garatti
Between 2009 and Q3 18 US total debt declined from a peak representing 350% of GDP in Q1 09 to 311.5% in Q3 18. According to our calculations, the true level of non financial corporate debt in the US may be 30% or USD 3.9tn higher than officially reported, primarily because of leveraged loans bought by non-banks. As such, an event of stress in the economy could end up pushing up the spread by 70-190bps, by sheer realization by market actors of intrinsic risks in that segment.
February 06 2019 • Ana Boata, Dr. Michael Heise
We continue to expect a last-minute agreement which would allow avoiding a disorderly Brexit on March 29th, 2019. This could take the form of (i) a ratification of a revised Brexit deal (ii) an extension of Article 50
January 30 2019 • Mahamoud Islam
Born in late 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a development and cooperation strategy launched by China. We expect merchandise trade flows between China and BRI partners to grow by +USD117bn in 2019 (after an estimated +USD158bn in 2018).
January 23 2019 • Arne Holzhausen, Kathrin Brandmeir, Michaela Grimm
1.1 billion people form the global wealth middle class, and the global concentration of wealth has fallen below 80%. Yet we see more inequality within many industrialized countries.
January 22 2019 • Benedikt Fritz, Arne Holzhausen
Our visual guide shows what separates smart savers form the hard savers and where they live.
January 16 2019 • Economic Research
After 2018's strong growth but heightened uncertainty, 2019 will be a denouement year; it will lead to a soft landing of the world economy.
January 09 2019 • Maxime Lemerle
Business insolvencies rise for the third consecutive year in 2019 (+6%). The softening economic momentum, coupled by the global tightening of financing conditions, will drive up insolvencies in a majority of countries.
1-9 out of 318 results
Two of the largest U.S. retailers recently reported strong Q4 results. Sales at Amazon rose +8.2% y/y, and same-store sales at Walmart rose +4.2% y/y, but its online sales leapt +43% y/y.
After the slight decline in economic output in the third quarter, real GDP increased only marginally by +0.02% q/q in seasonally adjusted terms in the final quarter of 2018.
Industrial production dropped for the fourth consecutive month in December, with the pace of contrac¬tion accelerating to -9.8% y/y (seasonally adjusted; -6.6% in November).
In just two weeks, the South African growth rate for 2018 will be published. It will likely show a return to the low growth registered in 2016 (+0.6%) despite a sizeable fiscal deficit (-4.2% of GDP in 2018).
Today, the government will present the pension reform to Congress, starting a lengthy, politically tense process.
First estimates indicate that real GDP growth in the group of 11 EU members in the CEE region came in at +4.2% y/y in Q4 (unchanged from Q3), taking full-year 2018 growth to an estimated +4.3%.
Senegal’s GDP per capita grew by +17% between 2013 and 2018.
USD-denominated exports rose by +9.1% y/y in January (after a -4.4% decline in December) mainly driven by demand from the EU (+15.3%) and ASEAN (+12.5%).
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