May 15 2019 • Jordi Basco Carrera
In March 2019, the U.S. yield curve inverted, sparking concerns about an economic downturn ahead. While some argue that this time is different, our calculations show that implied recession probabilities range between 43-60%, hinting towards an economic correction in the near future.
May 10 2019 • Mamhamoud Islam, Alexis Garatti, Jordi Basco Carrera
From May 10th, the Trump administration raised the tariff on USD200bn of imports from China to 25% from 10%. This will cost -0.5pp of global GDP growth and -2pp of global trade growth over the next two years.
May 09 2019 • Marc Livinec, Maxime Lemerle
After hitting a 10-year high in 2017, global average Days Sales Outstanding fell by -1 day to 65 days in 2018, a sign of companies taking a cautious approach to their clients’ payment behavior.
May 02 2019 • Mahamoud Islam,
India was the fastest-growing economy among G20 countries in 2018, but our data show that momentum slowed in Q1 2019, partly due to policy uncertainty. To boost the economy, India's next government needs to focus on openness, infrastructure and redistribution policies.
April 24 2019 • Georges Dib
Between 2014 and 2018, Spain experienced a second economic miracle as GDP grew by +2.8% on average p.a. But our forecasts point to a deceleration to +2% growth in 2019, and +1.8% in 2020 as Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's large increase in the minimum wage barely compensates for the slowdown in foreign demand (and consequently export growth) and the deceleration of domestic demand.
April 17 2019 • Stéphane Colliac, Alexis Garatti, Catharina Hillenbrand-Saponar
As digitalization and the rise of artificial intelligence drive automation, a new wave of knowledge-based investment is currently at work in France. This is sparking both business creation and insolvencies, besides changing the pace of capital depreciation and lowering labor costs and prices in the French economy.
April 09 2019 • Ana Boata, Georges Dib, Marc Livinec
The Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) bank loan financing gap in the Eurozone reduced to 3% of GDP in 2018, from 6% of GDP in 2015.
April 04 2019 • Catharina Hillenbrand-Saponar
Electric vehicles are the disruption of the century and how countries adapt to electrification will be key to the survival of their auto industries. But some have made more progress than others.
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On 5 May, President Trump announced plans to raise tariffs, arguing that current U.S.-China talks are too slow. From 10 May, tariffs on USD200bn of imports from China would increase to 25% (from 10% currently).
On 6 May, Turkey's electoral body ordered Istanbul's local elections to be rerun after a narrow victory by the opposition CHP’s candidate in March, thus overturning a rare defeat for President Erdogan
Seasonally adjusted industrial production rose by +0.5% in March compared with the previous month.
In March, French exports still grew the way they grew, putting Q1 export gains at +EUR6.3bn (compared to Q1 2018), with aeronautics (+2.1bn), chemicals (+1.7bn) and electronics (+0.7bn) being the Top3 growth sectors.
The April employment report was quite strong as the economy added +263k jobs, easily beating expectations of +180k.
Last week, the Czech National Bank (CNB; the central bank) raised its key policy interest rate by 25bp to 2.0%, a move that contrasts with the stance of many other central banks which recently have halted tightening or even turned more expansionary against the backdrop of moderating global growth
After the election, the South African government will have to fix 3 Depletions that hurt growth in the past: power, jobs and financing.
Latest figures were a bit of a mixed bag. On trade, while exports decreased (-2.7% y/y in April after +14.2% in March) imports made their comeback (+4% y/y) after four months of contraction.
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