We see global growth remaining on a healthy trajectory in 2019, despite the multiplication of risks. Read the quarterly update of our Global Economic Outlook.

The economy is on course of slipping into a technical recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of negative q/q growth), as expected, as real GDP contracted by -1.1% q/q in Q3.

The yellow vest movement already took its toll on consumer spending which is now likely to decrease by -0.2% q/q in Q4 (as in Q2, after some previous strikes).

Recent economic data has become softer. The economy added 155k jobs in November, which was a decent increase but was short of expectations of 190k, and the previous two months were revised down.

Trade figures were disappointing in November. USD-denominated exports growth slowed to +5.4% y/y (from +15.6% in October) and imports growth slowed to +3% (after +21.4% in October).

The November employment report literally set records. The economy created 94,100 jobs, the most in any single month since records began in 1976.

Real GDP growth maintained a strong pace of +5.1% y/y in Q3 (unchanged from Q2).

In Nigeria, GDP growth was quite stable in Q3, at +1.8% y/y. This figure is quite deceptive, since the implementation of delayed fiscal spending from H1 should have supported growth in Q3.