January 22 2019 • Benedikt Fritz, Arne Holzhausen
Our visual guide shows what separates smart savers form the hard savers and where they live.
January 16 2019 • Economic Research
After 2018's strong growth but heightened uncertainty, 2019 will be a denouement year; it will lead to a soft landing of the world economy.
January 09 2019 • Maxime Lemerle
Business insolvencies rise for the third consecutive year in 2019 (+6%). The softening economic momentum, coupled by the global tightening of financing conditions, will drive up insolvencies in a majority of countries.
December 19 2018 • Katharina Utermöhl, Dr. Michael Heise
Whereas 2018 will be known as the year when the ECB reached the end of its monetary easing path 2019 will mark the beginning of monetary tightening.
December 18 2018 • Economic Research Team
We see global growth remaining on a healthy trajectory in 2019, despite the multiplication of risks. Read the quarterly update of our Global Economic Outlook.
December 12 2018 • Ana Boata, Sergey Zuev
After ten years of growth (2008-2018), we have reached the peak in the global construction cycle. This year will be the turning point for the global construction industry, beginning to cool down gradually to +3% y/y in 2019, from +3.5% y/y in 2018.
December 12 2018 • Gregor Eder
Despite the recent setback, the overall economic situation in Germany can still be described as good. The domestic economic conditions for a continuation, albeit more moderate, of the upswing are still in place. Despite the increased risks we expect the overall economic utilization in Germany to increase further in the coming year. With real GDP growth of 1.7% (2018: expected 1.5%), however, the rate of the previous years (2016 and 2017: 2.2% each) will no longer be reached.
December 07 2018 • Catharina Hillenbrand-Saponar, Alexis Garatti, Abdul Rahman Kassab
As the parties to COP24 gather in Katowice to agree on implementing the Paris agreement, there could be a step up towards the reality of assets having to leave the market and others coming to displace them.
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Brexit is proving much harder to tame than a Shakespearian shrew. As expected, the UK House of Commons rejected Prime Minister (PM) Theresa May’s Brexit deal.
At +1.5%, the economy last year recorded its weakest GDP growth since 2013. Domestic demand was the main growth driver in 2018. Private consumption grew by a moderate +1% in real terms.
Imagine a country that is changing rapidly, where the young generation represents 51% of the voters in the next election. Imagine a country where growth is often hard to get in real time but is there.
In December, car sales contracted (-13% y/y), both USD-denominated exports (-4.4% y/y) and imports dropped (-7.6%), and producer prices growth slowed (+0.9% y/y from +2.7% in November).
Since the election of President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) we have maintained our cautious stance on his policy fluctuations between business-friendly commitments to austerity and more controversial decisions (see airport project cancellation).
Corporates are more pessimistic than optimistic about their performance as 2019 kicks in. Business confidence fell again, by -1% q/q after -1.7% in Q4 2018
In Morocco, GDP growth disappointed again in Q4 (+2.7% y/y). Overall, the growth profile observed in 2018 appears relatively bumpy as Q2 was already quite weak.
December’s trade figures were weak for Asian trade bellwethers. USD-denominated exports decreased by -1.2% y/y in South Korea and -3% in Taiwan.
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