December 11 2019 • Nazim Cetin, Georges Dib, Arne Holzhausen, Ludovic Subran and Sarah Theinert
China will be essential to the insurance world in a platform economy, thanks to scale, purpose and agility.
December 03 2019 • Catharina Hillenbrand-Saponar, Maxime Lemerle, Marc Livinec, Aurélien Duthoit and Corentin Jousserand
The COP25 summit is likely to be a catalyst for tightening and intensifying climate change regulation, which could cost global industry nearly USD 2.5tn over the next ten years.
November 27 2019 • Eric Barthalon
Long-term nominal bond yields reflect expectations about the future course of policy rates. However, whether these expectations are adaptive or rational, backward- or forward-looking is at the heart of the matter.
November 20 2019 • Georges Dib, Ludovic Subran, Corentin Jousserand and Emily Chiang
A superficial “mini-deal” between the U.S. and China, a slowdown in trade in services and a busy political year in 2020 leave no hope for sizable improvement in global trade growth.
November 14 2019 • Ana Boata, Manfred Stamer and Kai Gerdes
Our 2019 SME Business Climate Index assesses the business environment for SMEs in 13 selected economies.
November 13 2019 • Catharina Hillenbrand-Saponar, Alexis Garatti and Seif Aly
Global housing prices are at an all-time high, raising questions about the risk of bubbles in the housing sector.
November 07 2019 • Arne Holzhausen andPatricia Pelayo Romero
The overall benefit of low interest rates is neither equally distributed nor follows the North-South divide in the Eurozone.
October 30 2019 • Aurélien Duthoit
A second consecutive year of falling revenue and an uncertain business environment will exacerbate risks for the wider electronics industry.
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December started with three main hawkish news on the trade front: (i) new 100% tariffs on selected U.S. imports from France, which will not be implemented before January; (ii) 10-25% tariffs on Argentina’s and Brazil’s metals effective immediately; (iii) comments from President Trump, downplaying the urgency of a phase one deal with China, saying he “could wait” until after the 2020 election.
Q3 real GDP grew by a seasonally adjusted +0.4% q/q, after +1% in Q2 (revised down from +1.2%), and by +0.9% y/y (unadjusted).
Third quarter GDP came in largely as expected, growing at a +1.3% q/q annualized rate which was much slower than Q2’s +3.5% (revised down from +3.7%).
Manufacturing activity has not shown any sign of improvement in Emerging Markets (EM) in November, except in China.
Q3 GDP grew +0.6% q/q (+1.2% y/y), accelerating from +0.5% in Q2, driven by private consumption which grew +0.8% q/q and investment which grew +2% q/q.
Second estimates confirmed that Q3 real GDP growth slowed to +3.9% y/y (from +4.6% in Q2), the first reading below +4% since Q4 2016.
The South African economy entered anew a contraction in Q3 (-0.6% q/q annualized growth rate).
The Indian economy continued to slow in the July-September quarter of 2019.
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