April’s monthly batch of activity indicators was disappointing and increased pressure on policymaker to enlarge expansionary measures.

Q1 GDP increased by +0.5% q/q in the UK. This was above consensus and our forecast of +0.3% q/q. Preparations for a no-Brexit deal have been stronger than anticipated from both companies and households.

The German economy has regained a foothold and, with seasonally adjusted GDP growth of +0.4% q/q, enjoyed a strong start to 2019.

French non-financial corporates invested a record 21.4% share of their value added in 2018 and 53% of corporates are expected to do more in 2019, according to the Euler Hermes Investment Barometer (EHIB), particularly in the manufacturing sector.

The April employment report was superlative and continued to demonstrate a very strong labor market

As expected, the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) has reverted to unorthodox monetary tightening, following the financial market turmoil in the aftermath of the announcement on 6 May that the local election in Istanbul will be rerun

Real GDP growth slowed down to +2% y/y in Q4 2018, following +2.9% in Q3 (which was markedly revised upwards from a previous estimate of +1.8%) and a more or less neutral expansion in H1 2018.

Real GDP growth moderated to +5.6% y/y in Q1 2019 (from +6.3% in Q4 2018). Investment and government spending slowed while net trade contributed negatively.