February 14 2019 • Eric Barthalon, Alexis Garatti
Between 2009 and Q3 18 US total debt declined from a peak representing 350% of GDP in Q1 09 to 311.5% in Q3 18. According to our calculations, the true level of non financial corporate debt in the US may be 30% or USD 3.9tn higher than officially reported, primarily because of leveraged loans bought by non-banks. As such, an event of stress in the economy could end up pushing up the spread by 70-190bps, by sheer realization by market actors of intrinsic risks in that segment.
February 06 2019 • Ana Boata, Dr. Michael Heise
We continue to expect a last-minute agreement which would allow avoiding a disorderly Brexit on March 29th, 2019. This could take the form of (i) a ratification of a revised Brexit deal (ii) an extension of Article 50
January 30 2019 • Mahamoud Islam
Born in late 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a development and cooperation strategy launched by China. We expect merchandise trade flows between China and BRI partners to grow by +USD117bn in 2019 (after an estimated +USD158bn in 2018).
January 23 2019 • Arne Holzhausen, Kathrin Brandmeir, Michaela Grimm
1.1 billion people form the global wealth middle class, and the global concentration of wealth has fallen below 80%. Yet we see more inequality within many industrialized countries.
January 22 2019 • Benedikt Fritz, Arne Holzhausen
Our visual guide shows what separates smart savers form the hard savers and where they live.
January 16 2019 • Economic Research
After 2018's strong growth but heightened uncertainty, 2019 will be a denouement year; it will lead to a soft landing of the world economy.
January 09 2019 • Maxime Lemerle
Business insolvencies rise for the third consecutive year in 2019 (+6%). The softening economic momentum, coupled by the global tightening of financing conditions, will drive up insolvencies in a majority of countries.
December 19 2018 • Katharina Utermöhl, Dr. Michael Heise
Whereas 2018 will be known as the year when the ECB reached the end of its monetary easing path 2019 will mark the beginning of monetary tightening.
1-9 out of 317 results
After leaving the negotiating table with Catalan authorities last week, rejecting demands for an independence referendum, the Spanish government reaffirmed it would not discuss the “right of self-determination”.
GDP growth slowed down markedly to +0.2 q/q in Q4, below the +0.3% expected by consensus but in line with our expectations.
Exports of goods registered steady growth in 2018 (+18.2bn EUR, after +20.5bn in 2017). The EU accounted for +12.3bn EUR, but the U.S. (+4.4bn) and China (+2bn) were the two top country gains.
According to latest reports, the U.S. and the EU are close to agreeing to new sanctions on Russia in response to Russian aggression towards Ukraine in the Sea of Azov in November 2018.
The economy created +66.8k jobs in January, far greater than expectations, despite headwinds of delayed investment from NAFTA negotiations, the drag of the B20 mortgage rules, and plummeting prices for Canadian oil.
The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) of Poland kept its key interest policy rate at 1.5% last week, unchanged since March 2015.
Just before the 16 February election, Q4 2018 recorded the highest growth since Q3 2015, at +2.4% y/y.
In the longer term, risks to the outlook are rising, because (i) deteriorating public finances could hamper investors’ confidence and (ii) trade-related risks are increasing with signs of growth moderation in China and advanced economies.
Use our tool to analyze key payment and insolvency indicators that are critical for companiesSee the website
Find complementary economic and strategic insights to understand capital markets, wealth and insurance trends and moreSee the website