After leaving the negotiating table with Catalan authorities last week, rejecting demands for an independence referendum, the Spanish government reaffirmed it would not discuss the “right of self-determination”.

GDP growth slowed down markedly to +0.2 q/q in Q4, below the +0.3% expected by consensus but in line with our expectations.

Exports of goods registered steady growth in 2018 (+18.2bn EUR, after +20.5bn in 2017). The EU accounted for +12.3bn EUR, but the U.S. (+4.4bn) and China (+2bn) were the two top country gains.

According to latest reports, the U.S. and the EU are close to agreeing to new sanctions on Russia in response to Russian aggression towards Ukraine in the Sea of Azov in November 2018.

The economy created +66.8k jobs in January, far greater than expectations, despite headwinds of delayed investment from NAFTA negotiations, the drag of the B20 mortgage rules, and plummeting prices for Canadian oil.

The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) of Poland kept its key interest policy rate at 1.5% last week, unchanged since March 2015.

Just before the 16 February election, Q4 2018 recorded the highest growth since Q3 2015, at +2.4% y/y.

In the longer term, risks to the outlook are rising, because (i) deteriorating public finances could hamper investors’ confidence and (ii) trade-related risks are increasing with signs of growth moderation in China and advanced economies.