The second release of Q3 Eurozone GDP growth confirmed the higher-than-expected slowdown to +0.2% q/q, half the pace seen in H1.

The German economy contracted slightly in the third quarter. Seasonally adjusted real GDP declined by -0.2% q/q. While investment and government consumption contributed positively to the economic development, private consumption actually declined.

The rebound in economic growth in Q3 (+0.6% q/q) was triggered by a number of temporary factors, including contingency planning due to the uncertainty on the Brexit deal by March 2019.

Flash estimates indicate that real GDP growth in the group of 11 EU members in the CEE region retained momentum in Q3, coming in only just below the +4.3% y/y posted in Q2.

After a severe currency crisis, emergency interest rate hikes by the Central Bank and a USD57bn IMF funding arrangement, we argued earlier this fall that the worst was yet to come for companies.

The Q3 2018 GDP flash estimate indicates Portugal grew +0.3% in Q3 compared to last quarter (q/q), after growing +0.6% in Q2.

Last weekend, oil producers led by Saudi Arabia expressed discontent with the latest oil price development and suggested that a 1mn bbl/day decline in oil supplies from October levels was required to balance the market and avoid a build-up of oil stocks.

Real GDP contracted by -0.3% q/q in Q3 2018 (from an upwardly revised +0.8% q/q in Q2) as natural disasters and bad weather disrupted domestic spending and exports.