April 17 2019 • Stéphane Colliac, Alexis Garatti, Catharina Hillenbrand-Saponar
As digitalization and the rise of artificial intelligence drive automation, a new wave of knowledge-based investment is currently at work in France. This is sparking both business creation and insolvencies, besides changing the pace of capital depreciation and lowering labor costs and prices in the French economy.
April 09 2019 • Ana Boata, Georges Dib, Marc Livinec
The Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) bank loan financing gap in the Eurozone reduced to 3% of GDP in 2018, from 6% of GDP in 2015.
April 04 2019 • Catharina Hillenbrand-Saponar
Electric vehicles are the disruption of the century and how countries adapt to electrification will be key to the survival of their auto industries. But some have made more progress than others.
March 28 2019 • Alexis Garatti, Mahamoud Islam
Trade uncertainty costs much more than tariffs. We estimate that while US tariffs hampered global trade growth by 0.3pp in 2018, US-led trade uncertainty cost -0.5pp.
March 21 2019 • Alexis Garatti, Ludovic Subran
The world economy is about to experience a big switch, with China replacing the US as the main source of global growth, a reduction in trade uncertainty and an easing of monetary policy. This is the perfect allignment for emerging economies, but Europe's export-driven economies stand to benefit, too.
March 13 2019 • Manfred Stamer
Amid an expected soft landing of the world economy in 2019, six countries are particularly at risk in case of a sharper than expected downturn.
March 06 2019 • Mahamoud Islam
This week, at the annual session of the National People's Congress, China's top legislature lowered the country's economic growth target for 2019 to 6.0%-6.5%. But we expect a rebound from Q2 onwards, powered by the government's super stimulus of RMB4.15tn (5% GDP).
February 27 2019 • Kathrina Utermöhl
Economic stability stagnated in the Eurozone in 2018, according to the results of our latest Euro Monitor. Two heavyweights, namely France and Italy, share the bottom spot.
February 21 2019 • Stéphane Colliac, Alexis Garatti, Gregor Eder
In the last quarter of 2018, both the German and French economies observed a significant deceleration of growth. Going forward, both countries have the following elements on their watchlist: political instability, trade uncertainty, and the regulatory shock in the auto industry for Germany.
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China’s real GDP growth stabilized in Q1 (+6.4% y/y like in the previous quarter), helped by expansionary policies.
The manufacturing sector continues to stumble. Overall industrial production slipped -0.1% m/m in March vs. expectations of a +0.3% gain, pushing the y/y rate down to +2.8%.
Just as the recession continues to hit the Turkish economy, the credit cycle has tightened markedly and banks face ascending Non-Performing loans (NPLs).
During the last weeks, Zimbabwe, Tunisia, Sudan and Algeria faced significant public demonstrations.
The recently released minutes of the March central bank meeting – in which the policy rate was held steady at 8.25% – show that a majority of board members believe core inflation remains a concern (it is stuck at +3.6%).
Seasonally adjusted industrial production grew by +1.5% m/m in February, following a +3.6% m/m increase in January (which however benefited from a low base after -2.1% m/m in December 2018).
Just 3 weeks before the next general elections, the ANC dominance is expected to remain - and economic stagnation as well.
It is election season in India. The 2019 Lok Sabha elections started on April 11th and by the end of May, the country will have a new government.
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