Real economic growth edged down to +6.4% y/y in Q4 2018 (from +6.5% in Q3) as expected.

Recent data continues to be mostly negative. Manufacturing was the lone bright spot as manufacturing industrial production surged +1.1% m/m to a +3.2% y/y rate, while the Philly Fed’s survey also showed an uptick in activity.

First estimates indicate that the annual current account surplus increased to +USD115bn in 2018, equivalent to an estimated +7.6% of GDP, up from +USD33bn in 2017 (+2.2% of GDP).

While still in recession, Argentina is gradually rebalancing. It successfully achieved the IMF primary deficit target of -2.7% of GDP in 2018 (after -3.8% in 2017).

In November, both industrial production and real retail sales dropped for the third consecutive month, by -6.5% and -6.3% y/y, respectively.

Real GDP rose by +1% q/q in Q4 2018 (after +0.6% in Q3) supported by solid growth in domestic demand. Both private and government consumption increased in Q4, by +1% q/q (up from +0.5%) and +3.1% (after +1.5% q/q) respectively.

Brexit is proving much harder to tame than a Shakespearian shrew. As expected, the UK House of Commons rejected Prime Minister (PM) Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

At +1.5%, the economy last year recorded its weakest GDP growth since 2013. Domestic demand was the main growth driver in 2018. Private consumption grew by a moderate +1% in real terms.