09 July 2020 •
The light and targeted lockdowns to fight the second wave of Covid-19 infections will constrain the pace of recovery. We expect global GDP to contract by -4.7% in 2020, followed by growth of +4.8% in 2021.
03 July 2020 •
The ongoing credit easing amid the Covid-19 shock will worsen banks’ asset quality.
01 July 2020 •
Global premium income is expected to shrink by -3.8% in 2020.
30 June 2020 •
The strength of social hierarchy matters for insured trade credit defaults.
25 June 2020 •
New retail investors could explain the current decoupling between the U.S. equity market and economic fundamentals.
19 June 2020 •
Covid-19 is sparking a profitability shock for SMEs in the construction sector.
09 June 2020 •
Global demand in air transport will not return to its pre-Covid-19 level before 2023.
04 June 2020 •
The Covid-19 pandemic represents a historic window of opportunity to accelerate the global transition to a net zero emission society.
The aggressive trade policy pursued by the UK could lead to a +2.2% increase in import prices over a year, and be negative for competitiveness abroad.
We estimate that 20% of those currently enrolled in short-work schemes face an elevated risk of becoming unemployed in 2021 because of the muted recovery in late bloomer sectors and the policy cliff effect.
Wall Street is responding faster and faster to counter-cyclical policies, as if it was 100% sure that past experience is a sure guide to the future.
At the end of H1 2020, we estimate the net savings of EU non-financial corporates to have doubled to over EUR700bn, or more than 4.5% of GDP
Our proprietary Trade Momentum Index shows that Q2 is likely to see an even stronger contraction.
In response to the Covid-19 crisis, gross financing needs could amount to EUR800-900bn for the Eurozone, and only part of it will be covered by the issuance of long-term bonds.
This first attempt at a transfer union may make net payouts look small for, say Italy, but symbols do matter.
The Covid-19 crisis has pulled the rug out from under the feet of the German economy.