February 20 2020 • Marc Livinec
Since 2017, the sector has seen more than 30 major insolvencies on average per year.
February 20 2020 • Patrick Krizan
The “Allianz Euro Fragility Index” captures the systemic tail risk of a Eurozone breakup.
February 14 2020 • Ludovic Subran and Katharina Utermöhl
A recession was avoided in 2019, but no rebound is on the cards for 2020.
February 06 2020 • Eric Barthalon
Inflation expectations are best revealed by those who have skin in the game.
January 29 2020 • Patricia Pelayo Romero
For every drop by 1 percentage point in interest rates, savings rates increased by 0.2 percentage points in Europe.
January 29 2020 • Kai Gerdes, Leif Buscher, Ana Boata
Our standardized credit risk assessment (TRIBBot) for roughly 22,000 German SMEs and MidCaps shows that median credit risk significantly decreased with the economic expansion in recent years but started to show the first signs of a trend reversal in recent quarters.
January 22 2020 • Aurélien Duthoit
Shrinking company count, employment and profitability suggest that e-commerce isn’t compensating for the destruction of physical retail.
January 15 2020 • Ludovic Subran, Alexis Garatti, Eric Barthalon and Ana Boata
2019 was marked by record high uncertainty and two recessions, though a broad-based recession was avoided, thanks to swift and sizeable monetary policy reactions. Amid high social tensions, rapidly multiplying political risks and rising climate change risks, 2020 could represent a turning point in policies to defend growth at all costs.
January 09 2020 • Maxime Lemerle
In 2020, business failures are set to rise for the fourth consecutive year (+6% y/y). The combination of a low-for-longer pace of economic momentum, notably in advanced economies and in the industrial sector, and the lagging effects of trade disputes, political uncertainties and social tensions, will keep companies under pressure.
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The Monetary Policy Committee of Turkey disregarded rising inflation and once again cut its key policy one-week repo rate.
The top EU sectors that will benefit the most are agrifood, energy and machinery.
The increase in major failures accelerated in the last quarter of 2019 with a record number of cases and a new high in terms of severity.
We have revised down our global trade growth forecast for 2020 by -0.5pp to +1.3%.
Hong Kong’s GDP declined again in Q4 2019, by -0.4% q/q from the previous quarter.
The hit to China’s GDP y/y growth could amount to c. 1pp, mostly over Q1 2020.
According to today’s flash estimate, the Italian economy retracted by -0.3% in Q4 2019 bringing the annual real growth down to 0.0%.
French GDP declined by -0.1% q/q in Q4 2019, below expectations.
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