July 17 2019 • Arne Holzhausen and Timo Wochner
Europe’s rural areas aren’t really losing the economic development race: over the last two decades, they grew faster than urban areas by a whopping 14.6pp.
July 11 2019 • Maxime Lemerle, Ana Boata and Kai Gerdes
In 2018, the Working Capital Requirement of large companies deteriorated back to its highest level since 2012, with big rises in emerging markets such as Brazil, South Africa and Russia.
July 05 2019 • Ludovic Subran and Alexis GAratti
The global economy seems to have gone back to the 2015-16 limbo after two years of strong growth.
June 27 2019 • Ana Boata, Kai Gerdes, Anja Benz and Chris-Emannuel Ble
Eurozone companies have witnessed an unusual accumulation of stocks since mid-2018. The high level of inventories calls for a downside adjustment in production, and we expect destocking to push down growth in 2019.
June 19 2019 • Arne Holzhausen, Caroline Michler and Patricia Pelayo
Aging is usually associated with slower productivity growth but the 40-49 age cohort defines its trajectory in both the US and Europe. As a result, differing demographic trends could widen the gap between rich and poor countries in Europe.
June 12 2019 • Manfred Stamer
After an economic boom, Poland is heading for a slowdown in 2019 and 2020 amid an increasingly challenging global environment. Risks in the corporate sector, as well as insolvencies, are expected to rise.
June 05 2019 • Ana Boata
Bank financing is currently the most important external source of funding for small to medium-sized enterprises in Europe. But this makes SMEs vulnerable to restrictions on lending, which could arise due to regulatory changes.
May 27 2019 • Ana Boata & Ludovic Subran
The results of the European elections point to a fragmented parliament, which will impact the EU's reform agenda in the years to come.
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Recent trade tension developments between South Korea and Japan (regarding export restrictions of key components) add to the already tense world trade environment and could be detrimental to Asian trade hub economies.
On July 16th, the new European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, was confirmed by the European Parliament by a narrow majority of MPs (383 votes, just over the minimum of 374 required).
Last week, the long-awaited pension reform bill passed the first lower house vote with more than the 60% majority needed (379 in favor, 131 against).
Emerging Markets are increasingly affected by the weakening trade momentum and are still not benefitting from better credit conditions.
Recent economic reports have been mixed. Retail sales rose +0.4% m/m in June, beating expectations of a +0.1% increase.
Eurozone exports rebounded in May: +6.1% y/y in value terms from +4.6% in April and +2.1% in March.
After the election period, there were some signs that economic policy would become more growth-supportive in Nigeria.
GDP growth was negative in 19Q2 for the first time since 15Q1 and with a magnitude not seen since 2012.
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