December started with three main hawkish news on the trade front: (i) new 100% tariffs on selected U.S. imports from France, which will not be implemented before January; (ii) 10-25% tariffs on Argentina’s and Brazil’s metals effective immediately; (iii) comments from President Trump, downplaying the urgency of a phase one deal with China, saying he “could wait” until after the 2020 election.

Q3 real GDP grew by a seasonally adjusted +0.4% q/q, after +1% in Q2 (revised down from +1.2%), and by +0.9% y/y (unadjusted).

Third quarter GDP came in largely as expected, growing at a +1.3% q/q annualized rate which was much slower than Q2’s +3.5% (revised down from +3.7%).

Manufacturing activity has not shown any sign of improvement in Emerging Markets (EM) in November, except in China.

Q3 GDP grew +0.6% q/q (+1.2% y/y), accelerating from +0.5% in Q2, driven by private consumption which grew +0.8% q/q and investment which grew +2% q/q.

Second estimates confirmed that Q3 real GDP growth slowed to +3.9% y/y (from +4.6% in Q2), the first reading below +4% since Q4 2016.

The South African economy entered anew a contraction in Q3 (-0.6% q/q annualized growth rate).

The Indian economy continued to slow in the July-September quarter of 2019.