September 11 2019 • Georges Dib
The Euler Hermes Enabling Digitalization Index measures the ability – and agility – of countries to help digital companies thrive and traditional businesses harness the digital dividend.
September 05 2019 • Alexis Garatti
The recent gathering of central bankers at the Jackson Hole symposium of August 2019 was the occasion for prominent members of the Fed to confess a sense of powerlessness when confronted with the consequences of the White House’s disruptive economic policy.
July 31 2019 • Stéphane Colliac and Chris-Emmanuel Blé
In 2020, the CFA Franc is turning 75 years old. Yet, divergence among members of the common currency arrangement calls for cautious optimism about its stability.
July 24 2019 • Katharina Utermöhl, Simon Krause and Dayeon Kim
German economic indicators are particularly well-placed as precursors of global trade momentum, thanks to a combination of the economy’s key characteristics.
July 17 2019 • Arne Holzhausen and Timo Wochner
Europe’s rural areas aren’t really losing the economic development race: over the last two decades, they grew faster than urban areas by a whopping 14.6pp.
July 11 2019 • Maxime Lemerle, Ana Boata and Kai Gerdes
In 2018, the Working Capital Requirement of large companies deteriorated back to its highest level since 2012, with big rises in emerging markets such as Brazil, South Africa and Russia.
July 05 2019 • Ludovic Subran and Alexis GAratti
The global economy seems to have gone back to the 2015-16 limbo after two years of strong growth.
June 27 2019 • Ana Boata, Kai Gerdes, Anja Benz and Chris-Emannuel Ble
Eurozone companies have witnessed an unusual accumulation of stocks since mid-2018. The high level of inventories calls for a downside adjustment in production, and we expect destocking to push down growth in 2019.
June 19 2019 • Arne Holzhausen, Caroline Michler and Patricia Pelayo
Aging is usually associated with slower productivity growth but the 40-49 age cohort defines its trajectory in both the US and Europe. As a result, differing demographic trends could widen the gap between rich and poor countries in Europe.
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World GDP growth stalled in Q2 2019 at an estimated +2.4% q/q annualized, marking the third quarter in a row below +3% (a sequence last seen in 2015).
As expected the ECB announced a comprehensive monetary stimulus package at its September meeting consisting of a range of policy instruments including a 10bp cut in the deposit rate to -0.5%
In the second quarter of 2019 the French manufacturing sector defied gravity, growing by +1% y/y despite an output contraction in other key Eurozone economies.
The economy added only +130k jobs in August vs. expectations of +160k, and the prior two months were revised down -20k.
We draw two lessons from the draft 2020 budget presentation by the government. First, it sticks to fiscal discipline on paper, as it aims at a primary fiscal surplus of +0.7% of GDP, after a target of +1% this year.
Ukraine’s Central Bank lowered its key policy interest rate by 50bp to 16.5% last week as it expects continued disinflation.
Tunisia is entering a month full of elections (1st round of presidential elections on 15 September, legislative elections on 6 October and, if needed, a 2nd round of the presidential poll).
Q2 real GDP growth remained stable at +0.5% q/q. However, in y/y terms it fell to +1.4%, the slowest rate since Q3 2009, from +1.7% y/y in Q1 2019 and +2.7% in 2018 as a whole
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