Brexit is proving much harder to tame than a Shakespearian shrew. As expected, the UK House of Commons rejected Prime Minister (PM) Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

At +1.5%, the economy last year recorded its weakest GDP growth since 2013. Domestic demand was the main growth driver in 2018. Private consumption grew by a moderate +1% in real terms.

Imagine a country that is changing rapidly, where the young generation represents 51% of the voters in the next election. Imagine a country where growth is often hard to get in real time but is there.

In December, car sales contracted (-13% y/y), both USD-denominated exports (-4.4% y/y) and imports dropped (-7.6%), and producer prices growth slowed (+0.9% y/y from +2.7% in November).

Since the election of President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) we have maintained our cautious stance on his policy fluctuations between business-friendly commitments to austerity and more controversial decisions (see airport project cancellation).

Corporates are more pessimistic than optimistic about their performance as 2019 kicks in. Business confidence fell again, by -1% q/q after -1.7% in Q4 2018

In Morocco, GDP growth disappointed again in Q4 (+2.7% y/y). Overall, the growth profile observed in 2018 appears relatively bumpy as Q2 was already quite weak.

December’s trade figures were weak for Asian trade bellwethers. USD-denominated exports decreased by -1.2% y/y in South Korea and -3% in Taiwan.