July 31 2019 • Stéphane Colliac and Chris-Emmanuel Blé
In 2020, the CFA Franc is turning 75 years old. Yet, divergence among members of the common currency arrangement calls for cautious optimism about its stability.
July 24 2019 • Katharina Utermöhl, Simon Krause and Dayeon Kim
German economic indicators are particularly well-placed as precursors of global trade momentum, thanks to a combination of the economy’s key characteristics.
July 17 2019 • Arne Holzhausen and Timo Wochner
Europe’s rural areas aren’t really losing the economic development race: over the last two decades, they grew faster than urban areas by a whopping 14.6pp.
July 11 2019 • Maxime Lemerle, Ana Boata and Kai Gerdes
In 2018, the Working Capital Requirement of large companies deteriorated back to its highest level since 2012, with big rises in emerging markets such as Brazil, South Africa and Russia.
July 05 2019 • Ludovic Subran and Alexis GAratti
The global economy seems to have gone back to the 2015-16 limbo after two years of strong growth.
June 27 2019 • Ana Boata, Kai Gerdes, Anja Benz and Chris-Emannuel Ble
Eurozone companies have witnessed an unusual accumulation of stocks since mid-2018. The high level of inventories calls for a downside adjustment in production, and we expect destocking to push down growth in 2019.
June 19 2019 • Arne Holzhausen, Caroline Michler and Patricia Pelayo
Aging is usually associated with slower productivity growth but the 40-49 age cohort defines its trajectory in both the US and Europe. As a result, differing demographic trends could widen the gap between rich and poor countries in Europe.
June 12 2019 • Manfred Stamer
After an economic boom, Poland is heading for a slowdown in 2019 and 2020 amid an increasingly challenging global environment. Risks in the corporate sector, as well as insolvencies, are expected to rise.
June 05 2019 • Ana Boata
Bank financing is currently the most important external source of funding for small to medium-sized enterprises in Europe. But this makes SMEs vulnerable to restrictions on lending, which could arise due to regulatory changes.
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Looking at the U.S., EU28 and China, goods’ export gains YTD reached EUR29bn in May 2019.
As expected, Boris Johnson won the Conservative Party leadership contest (92,153 votes or 66%) and became PM of the UK on July 24th.
At its July monetary policy meeting, the ECB opened the door to fresh stimulus measures to respond to the subdued Eurozone growth outlook and persistent below-target inflation.
The French industrial sector has reached a new low and the beat that its heart skipped has much to do with the car industry.
The US housing market continues to stumble. Existing home sales fell -1.7% m/m in June to a -2.2% y/y rate
The pause in rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) was not enough to boost prospects in Latin American countries in H1 amid trade tensions and weak domestic developments.
Credit standards (i.e. banks’ internal guidelines or loan approval criteria) for loans to European SMEs tightened in Q2 (5%) while they remained broadly unchanged for loans to large corporates (1%).
South Africa is increasingly entrenched between leeway for monetary easing and a snowball effect on growth and debt.
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