June 12 2019 • Manfred Stamer
After an economic boom, Poland is heading for a slowdown in 2019 and 2020 amid an increasingly challenging global environment. Risks in the corporate sector, as well as insolvencies, are expected to rise.
June 05 2019 • Ana Boata
Bank financing is currently the most important external source of funding for small to medium-sized enterprises in Europe. But this makes SMEs vulnerable to restrictions on lending, which could arise due to regulatory changes.
May 27 2019 • Ana Boata & Ludovic Subran
The results of the European elections point to a fragmented parliament, which will impact the EU's reform agenda in the years to come.
May 24 2019 • Maxime Lermerle, Anja Benz
The most pressing threat ahead of Europe’s car industry isn’t Brexit or potential U.S. tariffs. It’s the EU’s own regulations for limiting carbon dioxide emissions.
May 24 2019 • Michaela Grimm, Arne Holzhausen and Patricia Pelayo
Global risks are constantly increasing but people and companies worldwide are spending a smaller proportion of their incomes on insurance.
May 15 2019 • Jordi Basco Carrera
In March 2019, the U.S. yield curve inverted, sparking concerns about an economic downturn ahead. While some argue that this time is different, our calculations show that implied recession probabilities range between 43-60%, hinting towards an economic correction in the near future.
May 10 2019 • Mamhamoud Islam, Alexis Garatti, Jordi Basco Carrera
From May 10th, the Trump administration raised the tariff on USD200bn of imports from China to 25% from 10%. This will cost -0.5pp of global GDP growth and -2pp of global trade growth over the next two years.
May 09 2019 • Marc Livinec, Maxime Lemerle
After hitting a 10-year high in 2017, global average Days Sales Outstanding fell by -1 day to 65 days in 2018, a sign of companies taking a cautious approach to their clients’ payment behavior.
May 02 2019 • Mahamoud Islam,
India was the fastest-growing economy among G20 countries in 2018, but our data show that momentum slowed in Q1 2019, partly due to policy uncertainty. To boost the economy, India's next government needs to focus on openness, infrastructure and redistribution policies.
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The consolidation of Eurozone public finances has made good progress in recent years, but the legacy of the European debt crisis still looms large.
The German economy’s start to the second quarter proved very disappointing
Stocks have increased continuously since Q1 2018 – and accelerated markedly in Q1 2019.
Exports made their best start since 2011, with gains of +EUR9bn in the first four months of 2019.
Second estimates show that Q1 GDP growth eased to +4.7% y/y from +4.9% in Q4 2018.
The May employment report was a major disappointment, showing job gains of only +75k vs. expectations of +180k, and downward revisions of -75k from the previous two months.
Last week, Ukraine’s new President Volodymyr Zelensky made his first foreign trip since his inauguration on 20 May, visiting officials of the EU and NATO in Brussels.
Africa’s growth in 2019 is set to be cut widely from +2.8% in previous estimates to just +2% due to abnormally low rains in various parts of the continent, especially in the east, south and north. This has two consequences
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