December 12 2018 • Ana Boata, Sergey Zuev
After ten years of growth (2008-2018), we have reached the peak in the global construction cycle. This year will be the turning point for the global construction industry, beginning to cool down gradually to +3% y/y in 2019, from +3.5% y/y in 2018.
December 12 2018 • Gregor Eder
Despite the recent setback, the overall economic situation in Germany can still be described as good. The domestic economic conditions for a continuation, albeit more moderate, of the upswing are still in place. Despite the increased risks we expect the overall economic utilization in Germany to increase further in the coming year. With real GDP growth of 1.7% (2018: expected 1.5%), however, the rate of the previous years (2016 and 2017: 2.2% each) will no longer be reached.
December 07 2018 • Catharina Hillenbrand-Saponar, Alexis Garatti, Abdul Rahman Kassab
As the parties to COP24 gather in Katowice to agree on implementing the Paris agreement, there could be a step up towards the reality of assets having to leave the market and others coming to displace them.
December 03 2018 • Ludovic Subran
As the holiday season starts, it’s time to reflect on what 2018 brought to us, and what 2019 holds in store.
December 03 2018 •
Worldwide private household liabilities reached a historic high of EUR 39.8 trillion in 2017.
December 03 2018 • Manfred Stamer
Higher oil prices versus new U.S. sanctions
December 03 2018 • Alexis Garatti
President Trump is a different kind of negotiator: Inside the Maximax strategy of the US President
December 03 2018 • ERD Team
2018-2019: Looking back, looking forward
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We see global growth remaining on a healthy trajectory in 2019, despite the multiplication of risks. Read the quarterly update of our Global Economic Outlook.
The economy is on course of slipping into a technical recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of negative q/q growth), as expected, as real GDP contracted by -1.1% q/q in Q3.
The yellow vest movement already took its toll on consumer spending which is now likely to decrease by -0.2% q/q in Q4 (as in Q2, after some previous strikes).
Recent economic data has become softer. The economy added 155k jobs in November, which was a decent increase but was short of expectations of 190k, and the previous two months were revised down.
Trade figures were disappointing in November. USD-denominated exports growth slowed to +5.4% y/y (from +15.6% in October) and imports growth slowed to +3% (after +21.4% in October).
The November employment report literally set records. The economy created 94,100 jobs, the most in any single month since records began in 1976.
Real GDP growth maintained a strong pace of +5.1% y/y in Q3 (unchanged from Q2).
In Nigeria, GDP growth was quite stable in Q3, at +1.8% y/y. This figure is quite deceptive, since the implementation of delayed fiscal spending from H1 should have supported growth in Q3.
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