June 05 2019 • Ana Boata
Bank financing is currently the most important external source of funding for small to medium-sized enterprises in Europe. But this makes SMEs vulnerable to restrictions on lending, which could arise due to regulatory changes.
May 27 2019 • Ana Boata & Ludovic Subran
The results of the European elections point to a fragmented parliament, which will impact the EU's reform agenda in the years to come.
May 24 2019 • Maxime Lermerle, Anja Benz
The most pressing threat ahead of Europe’s car industry isn’t Brexit or potential U.S. tariffs. It’s the EU’s own regulations for limiting carbon dioxide emissions.
May 24 2019 • Michaela Grimm, Arne Holzhausen and Patricia Pelayo
Global risks are constantly increasing but people and companies worldwide are spending a smaller proportion of their incomes on insurance.
May 15 2019 • Jordi Basco Carrera
In March 2019, the U.S. yield curve inverted, sparking concerns about an economic downturn ahead. While some argue that this time is different, our calculations show that implied recession probabilities range between 43-60%, hinting towards an economic correction in the near future.
May 10 2019 • Mamhamoud Islam, Alexis Garatti, Jordi Basco Carrera
From May 10th, the Trump administration raised the tariff on USD200bn of imports from China to 25% from 10%. This will cost -0.5pp of global GDP growth and -2pp of global trade growth over the next two years.
May 09 2019 • Marc Livinec, Maxime Lemerle
After hitting a 10-year high in 2017, global average Days Sales Outstanding fell by -1 day to 65 days in 2018, a sign of companies taking a cautious approach to their clients’ payment behavior.
May 02 2019 • Mahamoud Islam,
India was the fastest-growing economy among G20 countries in 2018, but our data show that momentum slowed in Q1 2019, partly due to policy uncertainty. To boost the economy, India's next government needs to focus on openness, infrastructure and redistribution policies.
April 24 2019 • Georges Dib
Between 2014 and 2018, Spain experienced a second economic miracle as GDP grew by +2.8% on average p.a. But our forecasts point to a deceleration to +2% growth in 2019, and +1.8% in 2020 as Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's large increase in the minimum wage barely compensates for the slowdown in foreign demand (and consequently export growth) and the deceleration of domestic demand.
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The Greek economy returned on a positive growth trajectory in Q1 2019 with GDP expanding by +0.2% q/q – driven by impulses from the domestic economy – after a contraction of -0.1% q/q in the previous quarter.
Real GDP grew by a seasonally adjusted +1.3% q/q in Q1, following three consecutive quarters of decline.
French corporate margins were hit by a roller coaster during the last quarters, reaching a four-year low in Q2 2018 (30.9%) and back to a decade-high in Q1 2019 (32.6%).
The economic cycle of Emerging Markets (EM) is currently deteriorating fast, indicated by our aggregate EM manufacturing PMI falling to 49.6 points in May, back below 50 (recession area) for the first time since August 2016.
Fed officials are now hinting at a rate cut this year, citing concerns over trade and the inverted yield curve. St. Louis Fed President Bullard: “A downward policy rate adjustment may be warranted soon”.
Q1 GDP growth surprised on the upside, at +0.6% q/q. But the headline figure masks rising fragilities.
South Africa was heavily hit by increasing power shortages in Q1 (-2.3% y/y), with a key impact on GDP growth (-0.8% q/q) and the fiscal balance that is on the trajectory to reach -5.5% of GDP in 2019.
Q1 real GDP growth edged down to +5.1% y/y from +5.2% in Q4 2018.
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