May 15 2019 • Jordi Basco Carrera
In March 2019, the U.S. yield curve inverted, sparking concerns about an economic downturn ahead. While some argue that this time is different, our calculations show that implied recession probabilities range between 43-60%, hinting towards an economic correction in the near future.
May 10 2019 • Mamhamoud Islam, Alexis Garatti, Jordi Basco Carrera
From May 10th, the Trump administration raised the tariff on USD200bn of imports from China to 25% from 10%. This will cost -0.5pp of global GDP growth and -2pp of global trade growth over the next two years.
May 09 2019 • Marc Livinec, Maxime Lemerle
After hitting a 10-year high in 2017, global average Days Sales Outstanding fell by -1 day to 65 days in 2018, a sign of companies taking a cautious approach to their clients’ payment behavior.
May 02 2019 • Mahamoud Islam,
India was the fastest-growing economy among G20 countries in 2018, but our data show that momentum slowed in Q1 2019, partly due to policy uncertainty. To boost the economy, India's next government needs to focus on openness, infrastructure and redistribution policies.
April 24 2019 • Georges Dib
Between 2014 and 2018, Spain experienced a second economic miracle as GDP grew by +2.8% on average p.a. But our forecasts point to a deceleration to +2% growth in 2019, and +1.8% in 2020 as Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's large increase in the minimum wage barely compensates for the slowdown in foreign demand (and consequently export growth) and the deceleration of domestic demand.
April 17 2019 • Stéphane Colliac, Alexis Garatti, Catharina Hillenbrand-Saponar
As digitalization and the rise of artificial intelligence drive automation, a new wave of knowledge-based investment is currently at work in France. This is sparking both business creation and insolvencies, besides changing the pace of capital depreciation and lowering labor costs and prices in the French economy.
April 09 2019 • Ana Boata, Georges Dib, Marc Livinec
The Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) bank loan financing gap in the Eurozone reduced to 3% of GDP in 2018, from 6% of GDP in 2015.
April 04 2019 • Catharina Hillenbrand-Saponar
Electric vehicles are the disruption of the century and how countries adapt to electrification will be key to the survival of their auto industries. But some have made more progress than others.
1-9 out of 331 results
April’s monthly batch of activity indicators was disappointing and increased pressure on policymaker to enlarge expansionary measures.
Q1 GDP increased by +0.5% q/q in the UK. This was above consensus and our forecast of +0.3% q/q. Preparations for a no-Brexit deal have been stronger than anticipated from both companies and households.
The German economy has regained a foothold and, with seasonally adjusted GDP growth of +0.4% q/q, enjoyed a strong start to 2019.
French non-financial corporates invested a record 21.4% share of their value added in 2018 and 53% of corporates are expected to do more in 2019, according to the Euler Hermes Investment Barometer (EHIB), particularly in the manufacturing sector.
The April employment report was superlative and continued to demonstrate a very strong labor market
As expected, the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) has reverted to unorthodox monetary tightening, following the financial market turmoil in the aftermath of the announcement on 6 May that the local election in Istanbul will be rerun
Real GDP growth slowed down to +2% y/y in Q4 2018, following +2.9% in Q3 (which was markedly revised upwards from a previous estimate of +1.8%) and a more or less neutral expansion in H1 2018.
Real GDP growth moderated to +5.6% y/y in Q1 2019 (from +6.3% in Q4 2018). Investment and government spending slowed while net trade contributed negatively.
Use our tool to analyze key payment and insolvency indicators that are critical for companiesSee the website
Find complementary economic and strategic insights to understand capital markets, wealth and insurance trends and moreSee the website