January 15 2020 • Ludovic Subran, Alexis Garatti, Eric Barthalon and Ana Boata
2019 was marked by record high uncertainty and two recessions, though a broad-based recession was avoided, thanks to swift and sizeable monetary policy reactions. Amid high social tensions, rapidly multiplying political risks and rising climate change risks, 2020 could represent a turning point in policies to defend growth at all costs.
January 09 2020 • Maxime Lemerle
In 2020, business failures are set to rise for the fourth consecutive year (+6% y/y). The combination of a low-for-longer pace of economic momentum, notably in advanced economies and in the industrial sector, and the lagging effects of trade disputes, political uncertainties and social tensions, will keep companies under pressure.
December 19 2019 • Eric Barthalon
Volatility — be it historical or implied — is widely used to calibrate risk-taking in the financial services industry, from volatility-targeting strategies, to collateral requirements estimation, to prudential regulation.
December 13 2019 • Ana Boata, Lina Manthey, Jordi Basco Carrera and Aisha Salih
The polls were right this time: the Conservative Party won a solid majority in the UK general elections, which will allow them to “get Brexit done” in 2020.
December 12 2019 • Ludovic Subran, Niklas Schmitz and Katharina Utermöhl
From 2016 onwards, output and inflation gap measures alone struggle to explain the ECB’s increasingly accommodative monetary policy stance in a standard Taylor Rule.
December 11 2019 • Nazim Cetin, Georges Dib, Arne Holzhausen, Ludovic Subran and Sarah Theinert
China will be essential to the insurance world in a platform economy, thanks to scale, purpose and agility.
December 03 2019 • Catharina Hillenbrand-Saponar, Maxime Lemerle, Marc Livinec, Aurélien Duthoit and Corentin Jousserand
The COP25 summit is likely to be a catalyst for tightening and intensifying climate change regulation, which could cost global industry nearly USD 2.5tn over the next ten years.
November 27 2019 • Eric Barthalon
Long-term nominal bond yields reflect expectations about the future course of policy rates. However, whether these expectations are adaptive or rational, backward- or forward-looking is at the heart of the matter.
November 20 2019 • Georges Dib, Ludovic Subran, Corentin Jousserand and Emily Chiang
A superficial “mini-deal” between the U.S. and China, a slowdown in trade in services and a busy political year in 2020 leave no hope for sizable improvement in global trade growth.
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The strong decrease in Russia’s current account surplus in 2019 has been confirmed.
China’s GDP growth came in unchanged at +6.0% y/y in Q4 2019.
The U.S. will halve its 15% tariff on about USD120 billion of Chinese goods and suspend planned duties that were set to take effect last December.
Exports faced a sudden stop during the last months but a partial recovery should be expected in key export champions as latest output, orders and inventories data was reassuring for them.
The economy created +145k jobs in December, softer than expectations of +160k, and the prior two months were revised down a total of -14k.
Manufacturing activity in Emerging Markets (EM) remained in contraction mode for the eighth month in a row.
The economy created +35.2k jobs in December, stronger than expectations of +25k, and recovering half of November’s -71.2k plunge (the fourth worst on record).
Whilst the European Central Bank is drudging to fuel inflation in the Eurozone, consumer price growth surprised on the upside in December in Poland (up to 3.4% from 2.6% in November), Hungary (to 4.0% from 3.4%), Czechia (to 3.2% from 3.1%) and Romania (to 4.0% from 3.8%).
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