November 07 2018 • Alexis Garatti, Peter Lefkin, Dan North
The midterm elections and the resulting Democratically controlled House does not change our US economic outlook.
October 29 2018 • Georges Dib
On Sunday October 28th, Brazil traded a step back in time for a leap of faith into the unknown. The people ditched another workers’ party (PT) presidency and elected Jair Bolsonaro. The business community embraced the sheen of a self-designated ultraliberal over the nostalgia of a left-wing statist.
October 25 2018 • Katharina Utermöhl
Following the termination of net asset purchases at the end of this year, the ECB will limit itself to reinvesting the proceeds of maturing government bonds in its portfolio. What looks like a simple exercise, might prove rather tricky in reality, as the ECB has defined various constraints with respect to its security purchases.
October 24 2018 • Alexis Garatti, , Mahamoud Islam, Ana Boata, Manfred Stamer, Georges Dib, Stéphane Colliac
A cyclone is brewing in the global economy. The US – with its erratic policy-making causing major shocks of uncertainty – is in the eye of the storm, sending headwinds toward the rest of the world.
October 24 2018 • Ludovic Subran
As 2018 comes to an end, it is becoming clear that President Trump’s policies have shaped not only the acceleration of growth in the United States but many policy reactions and therefore growth trajectories outside the US.
October 15 2018 • Ana Boata
Ongoing discussions about the details of the divorce agreement combined with a polarized political landscape in the UK have increased the likelihood of a ‘No deal’ and resulted in higher uncertainty.
October 10 2018 • Manfred Stamer, Eric Barthalon, Xiaofeng Qi
Turkey’s currency crisis became full-fledged in August amid an ongoing withdrawal of global liquidity stemming from continued monetary tightening in the U.S. as well as lasting economic policy mistakes.
October 01 2018 • Maxime Lemerle
The automotive market is set to grow by +3.0% in 2018 compared to +3.1% in 2017 and to slow down to +1.9% in 2019, with new vehicle registrations expected to exceed 100mn units in 2019, worldwide. Medium-term prospects remain favorable, with annual sales to reach 110 million units by 2022 mainly driven by the demand in China and to a lesser extent India. However, for manufacturers and suppliers, transition to electric vehicle and protectionism are leading to greatly increased uncertainty and rising costs, notably inputs costs, relocation of production and upheaval of supply-chains. Some car makers will be forced to dedicate CAPEX to meeting short term challenges and therefore not be able to deploy the significant amounts required to take advantage of opportunities stemming from the future of mobility.
September 28 2018 • Kathrin Brandmeir, Dr. Michaela Grimm, Dr. Michael Heise, Dr. Arne Holzhausen
Financial assets of households rose by a significant 7.7% to EUR 168 trillion in 2017, supported by synchronized economic recovery and strong financial markets according to the ninth edition of the ‘Allianz Global Wealth Report’. However, first data for 2018 suggests a much reduced growth. The report puts the asset and debt situation of households in more than 50 countries under the microscope.
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The upstream paper industry has cashed in on the surge in the global price of pulp (up 60% since the beginning of last year) thanks to Asian demand.
2018 Q1–Q3 posted 247 insolvencies of major companies, totaling EUR105.8bn in turnover.
Q3 GDP grew at an annualized rate of +3.5% q/q, in line with expectations.
GDP growth picked up to +0.4% q/q in Q3 from +0.2% in Q2.
Sentiment among German companies weakened further in October.
In the third quarter of 2018, the Italian economy recorded no economic growth compared to the previous quarter.
As expected, far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro won the runoff of the Brazilian presidential election last Sunday with more than 55% of the votes, beating opponent Fernando Haddad (workers’ party of PT) by 10 million votes.
The Monetary Policy Committee of Turkey kept its set of policy interest rates unchanged on 25 October (including the one-week repo rate at 24%), even though inflation had surged to 24.5% y/y in September.
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