November 07 2018 • Alexis Garatti, Peter Lefkin, Dan North
The mid-term elections and the resulting Democratically controlled House does not change our US economic outlook. GDP is still expected to grow by 2.9% in 2018, and 2.5% in 2019. However, businesses could be affected by policy shifts in six areas: infrastructure spending, regulation, taxes, public budget, trade and immigration.
October 29 2018 • Georges Dib
On Sunday October 28th, Brazil traded a step back in time for a leap of faith into the unknown. The people ditched another workers’ party (PT) presidency and elected Jair Bolsonaro. The business community embraced the sheen of a self-designated ultraliberal over the nostalgia of a left-wing statist.
October 25 2018 • Katharina Utermöhl
Following the termination of net asset purchases at the end of this year, the ECB will limit itself to reinvesting the proceeds of maturing government bonds in its portfolio. What looks like a simple exercise, might prove rather tricky in reality, as the ECB has defined various constraints with respect to its security purchases.
October 24 2018 • Alexis Garatti, , Mahamoud Islam, Ana Boata, Manfred Stamer, Georges Dib, Stéphane Colliac
A cyclone is brewing in the global economy. The US – with its erratic policy-making causing major shocks of uncertainty – is in the eye of the storm, sending headwinds toward the rest of the world.
October 24 2018 • Ludovic Subran
As 2018 comes to an end, it is becoming clear that President Trump’s policies have shaped not only the acceleration of growth in the United States but many policy reactions and therefore growth trajectories outside the US.
October 15 2018 • Ana Boata
Ongoing discussions about the details of the divorce agreement combined with a polarized political landscape in the UK have increased the likelihood of a ‘No deal’ and resulted in higher uncertainty.
October 10 2018 • Manfred Stamer, Eric Barthalon, Xiaofeng Qi
Turkey’s currency crisis became full-fledged in August amid an ongoing withdrawal of global liquidity stemming from continued monetary tightening in the U.S. as well as lasting economic policy mistakes.
October 01 2018 • Maxime Lemerle
The automotive market is set to grow by +3.0% in 2018 compared to +3.1% in 2017 and to slow down to +1.9% in 2019, with new vehicle registrations expected to exceed 100mn units in 2019, worldwide. Medium-term prospects remain favorable, with annual sales to reach 110 million units by 2022 mainly driven by the demand in China and to a lesser extent India. However, for manufacturers and suppliers, transition to electric vehicle and protectionism are leading to greatly increased uncertainty and rising costs, notably inputs costs, relocation of production and upheaval of supply-chains. Some car makers will be forced to dedicate CAPEX to meeting short term challenges and therefore not be able to deploy the significant amounts required to take advantage of opportunities stemming from the future of mobility.
September 28 2018 • Kathrin Brandmeir, Dr. Michaela Grimm, Dr. Michael Heise, Dr. Arne Holzhausen
Financial assets of households rose by a significant 7.7% to EUR 168 trillion in 2017, supported by synchronized economic recovery and strong financial markets according to the ninth edition of the ‘Allianz Global Wealth Report’. However, first data for 2018 suggests a much reduced growth. The report puts the asset and debt situation of households in more than 50 countries under the microscope.
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The second release of Q3 Eurozone GDP growth confirmed the higher-than-expected slowdown to +0.2% q/q, half the pace seen in H1.
The German economy contracted slightly in the third quarter. Seasonally adjusted real GDP declined by -0.2% q/q. While investment and government consumption contributed positively to the economic development, private consumption actually declined.
The rebound in economic growth in Q3 (+0.6% q/q) was triggered by a number of temporary factors, including contingency planning due to the uncertainty on the Brexit deal by March 2019.
Flash estimates indicate that real GDP growth in the group of 11 EU members in the CEE region retained momentum in Q3, coming in only just below the +4.3% y/y posted in Q2.
After a severe currency crisis, emergency interest rate hikes by the Central Bank and a USD57bn IMF funding arrangement, we argued earlier this fall that the worst was yet to come for companies.
The Q3 2018 GDP flash estimate indicates Portugal grew +0.3% in Q3 compared to last quarter (q/q), after growing +0.6% in Q2.
Last weekend, oil producers led by Saudi Arabia expressed discontent with the latest oil price development and suggested that a 1mn bbl/day decline in oil supplies from October levels was required to balance the market and avoid a build-up of oil stocks.
Real GDP contracted by -0.3% q/q in Q3 2018 (from an upwardly revised +0.8% q/q in Q2) as natural disasters and bad weather disrupted domestic spending and exports.
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