March 13 2019 • Manfred Stamer
Amid an expected soft landing of the world economy in 2019, six countries are particularly at risk in case of a sharper than expected downturn.
March 06 2019 • Mahamoud Islam
This week, at the annual session of the National People's Congress, China's top legislature lowered the country's economic growth target for 2019 to 6.0%-6.5%. But we expect a rebound from Q2 onwards, powered by the government's super stimulus of RMB4.15tn (5% GDP).
February 27 2019 • Kathrina Utermöhl
Economic stability stagnated in the Eurozone in 2018, according to the results of our latest Euro Monitor. Two heavyweights, namely France and Italy, share the bottom spot.
February 21 2019 • Stéphane Colliac, Alexis Garatti, Gregor Eder
In the last quarter of 2018, both the German and French economies observed a significant deceleration of growth. Going forward, both countries have the following elements on their watchlist: political instability, trade uncertainty, and the regulatory shock in the auto industry for Germany.
February 14 2019 • Eric Barthalon, Alexis Garatti
Between 2009 and Q3 18 US total debt declined from a peak representing 350% of GDP in Q1 09 to 311.5% in Q3 18. According to our calculations, the true level of non financial corporate debt in the US may be 30% or USD 3.9tn higher than officially reported, primarily because of leveraged loans bought by non-banks. As such, an event of stress in the economy could end up pushing up the spread by 70-190bps, by sheer realization by market actors of intrinsic risks in that segment.
February 06 2019 • Ana Boata, Dr. Michael Heise
We continue to expect a last-minute agreement which would allow avoiding a disorderly Brexit on March 29th, 2019. This could take the form of (i) a ratification of a revised Brexit deal (ii) an extension of Article 50
January 30 2019 • Mahamoud Islam
Born in late 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a development and cooperation strategy launched by China. We expect merchandise trade flows between China and BRI partners to grow by +USD117bn in 2019 (after an estimated +USD158bn in 2018).
January 23 2019 • Arne Holzhausen, Kathrin Brandmeir, Michaela Grimm
1.1 billion people form the global wealth middle class, and the global concentration of wealth has fallen below 80%. Yet we see more inequality within many industrialized countries.
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Real GDP contracted by -2.4% q/q in Q4 2018, confirming the (technical) recession we have long predicted. In addition, the figures for previous quarters were markedly revised downwards: to -1.6% q/q in Q3 (from -1.1%); +0.05% q/q in Q2 (previously +0.6%
As expected PM May lost again the vote on the “slightly revised” Brexit deal.
The French export performance surprised on the upside in January 2019 despite growth concerns in Germany and China.
One year ago, manufacturing activity in Emerging Markets (EM) open to trade was outperforming other EM, on the back of strong trade growth.
The economy added only +20k jobs in February, far short of the +180k expected.
Q4 GDP growth accelerated to +3.2% y/y from +2.6% in Q3. This took growth for all of 2018 to +3% (down from +4.4% in 2017) which was entirely driven by domestic demand, a shift from the broad-based performance in 2017.
Kenya is attracting more and more attention. 2018 growth figures are not fully out yet, but it seems that GDP grew by +6%, recovering from +4.9% in 2017.
USD-denominated exports dropped sharply by -20.7% y/y in February and imports contracted by -5.2%.
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