October 15 2018 • Ana Boata
Ongoing discussions about the details of the divorce agreement combined with a polarized political landscape in the UK have increased the likelihood of a ‘No deal’ and resulted in higher uncertainty.
October 10 2018 • Manfred Stamer, Eric Barthalon, Xiaofeng Qi
Turkey’s currency crisis became full-fledged in August amid an ongoing withdrawal of global liquidity stemming from continued monetary tightening in the U.S. as well as lasting economic policy mistakes.
October 01 2018 • Maxime Lemerle
The automotive market is set to grow by +3.0% in 2018 compared to +3.1% in 2017 and to slow down to +1.9% in 2019, with new vehicle registrations expected to exceed 100mn units in 2019, worldwide. Medium-term prospects remain favorable, with annual sales to reach 110 million units by 2022 mainly driven by the demand in China and to a lesser extent India. However, for manufacturers and suppliers, transition to electric vehicle and protectionism are leading to greatly increased uncertainty and rising costs, notably inputs costs, relocation of production and upheaval of supply-chains. Some car makers will be forced to dedicate CAPEX to meeting short term challenges and therefore not be able to deploy the significant amounts required to take advantage of opportunities stemming from the future of mobility.
September 28 2018 • Kathrin Brandmeir, Dr. Michaela Grimm, Dr. Michael Heise, Dr. Arne Holzhausen
Financial assets of households rose by a significant 7.7% to EUR 168 trillion in 2017, supported by synchronized economic recovery and strong financial markets according to the ninth edition of the ‘Allianz Global Wealth Report’. However, first data for 2018 suggests a much reduced growth. The report puts the asset and debt situation of households in more than 50 countries under the microscope.
September 27 2018 • Stephane Colliac
After a successful first year of long-awaited reforms, French corporates remain indebted and households lack purchasing power. The Government just published their 2019 budget proposal and economic policy objectives.
September 25 2018 • Catharina Hillenbrand-Saponar
While oil and gas sector posted strong earnings on the back of higher commodity prices, performance for clean energy, especially solar, reflects regulatory concerns, especially in China The number of large bankruptcies for solar companies should increase, especially in China because of rampant overcapacity and pricing issues, the end of subsidies, and the ongoing trade feud with the US
September 13 2018 • Ludovic Subran - Alexis Garatti
Since his election, President Trump`s political agenda has included a deregulation of the US banking sector. The most recent step has been new legislation altering some of the regulations of the Dodd-Frank act. The aim has been to reduce bureaucracy and restrictions especially for smaller banks. In the attached Economic Insight, Alexis Garatti and Ludovic Subran analyze the possible effects. While we expect this round of financial deregulation to spur growth by unleashing new credit into the economy, it will also encourage more risk taking and will amplify the current financial boom. This may turn out to be a burden for long-term growth.
August 27 2018 • Ana Boata
Europe will enjoy above potential GDP growth for two more years. This should be a good reason to boost reform momentum. Despite high expectations, the institutional breakthrough has been delayed to late 2018. Europe is likely to experience still above potential GDP growth for at least the next two years, at +2.1% in 2018 and +1.9% in 2019 respectively. The recovery, truly visible since 2017, has not yet sufficiently morphed into higher household purchasing power and significantly lower unemployment rate in a widespread manner across all Eurozone economies. In Italy for example, the unemployment rate reached 10.7% in May, the lowest since 2012, but remains around 4pp above the 2007 level.
August 21 2018 • Ludovic Subran
When Henry Kissinger, the grand consigliere of American diplomacy, 95 years old, said those words, he had me wonder. What if what I thought to be a four-year pause for America as the most-respected benevolent hegemon in history could as well be the beginning of a grave new world without any? What if the US continued to disengage from supplying the world with pivotal public goods and rules of the game for the greater good?
1-9 out of 287 results
The US Retail sector has set a new insolvent turnover record this Monday. There have been 13 major insolvencies since the beginning of the year, amounting to USD34bn.
Turkey’s currency crisis became full-fledged in August as US sanctions on the country unnerved investors who were already concerned about weak macro funda-mentals. The TRY lost -24% vs. the USD in that month.
Recently released trade figures for September continued to prove resilient.
Foreign currency debt increased markedly during the last years to some 45% of GDP in 2018.
First estimates indicate that the current account posted a surplus of +USD26bn in Q3 2018, taking the surplus in Q1-Q3 2018 to +USD76bn (compared to +USD20bn in Q1-Q3 2017).
Retail sales are running at a solid +4.7% y/y growth rate despite softness in September which may have been caused by Hurricane Florence. Gasoline sales fell -0.8% m/m, but after three months of weakness, auto sales gained +0.8% m/m.
Recently released official data show that real GDP rebounded to growth of +2.4% y/y in Q2, after a decline by -1.2% y/y in Q1.
The Monetary Council (MC) of Hungary kept its key policy interest rate (3-month deposit rate; +0.9%) and the overnight deposit rate (-0.15%) again unchanged this week despite market concerns about rising inflation.
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