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IRAN
Country risk rating
D4
HIGH RISK for entreprise
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Economic risk
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Business environment risk
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Political risk
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Commercial risk
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Financing risk
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Economic risk
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Business environment risk
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Political risk
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Commercial risk
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Financing risk
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| GDP | USD454bn (World ranking 27, World Bank 2018) |
| Population | 82mn (World ranking 19, World Bank 2018) |
| Form of state | Theocratic Republic |
| Head of government | Hassan ROHANI (President) |
| Next elections | 2020, legislative |
LATEST NEWS ABOUT IRAN
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'Dear Santa': Our economists' wish list for 2021
18 December
As 2020 draws to a close and we release our updated forecasts, our economists were caught day dreaming of a world where their boldest wishes would come true.
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2021-22: Vaccine economics
18 December
The Covid-19 vaccine will supercharge global growth in 2021, but short-term headwinds, and a complete recovery only by 2022, will create transition risks.
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EU Climate policy goes global: Introducing a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
14 October
When implemented, a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism could come with a huge cost for sectors.
- World’s second largest known natural gas reserves and fourth largest oil reserves, which will last over 100 years at current rates of extraction (according to the government)
- Large domestic market
- Large FX reserves, currently providing 9 months import cover.
- Very low external debt obligations
- Occasional conflict between the twin pillars of power – the government and the theocracy.
- Imposition of sharp sanctions and secondary sanctions by the U.S. after Iran withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known commonly as the Iran nuclear deal. This has raised the already high level of geopolitical risk for the region (e.g. a more radical stance of Iran on Israel and Saudi Arabia)
- Regional dynamics are negative. Neighbors include Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Syrian conflict and IS activities provide further uncertainties. Moreover, Israel is perceived as a security threat
- Risk of domestic social unrest and a harsh response by the authorities
- Very high exchange rate vulnerability. Black market rate is about 3-4 times above official rate
- High double-digit inflation
Trade structure by destination/origin
(% of total)
| Exports | Rank | Imports |
|---|---|---|
|
China
32%
|
1 |
34%
United Arab Emirates
|
|
India
13%
|
2 |
19%
China
|
|
Turkey
12%
|
3 |
7%
Turkey
|
|
Japan
8%
|
4 |
6%
Korea, Republic of
|
|
China, Taiwan Province of
8%
|
5 |
5%
Germany
|
Trade structure by product
(% of total)
| Exports | Rank | Imports |
|---|---|---|
|
Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials
60%
|
1 |
12%
Iron and steel
|
|
Organic chemicals
5%
|
2 |
8%
Road vehicles
|
|
Plastics in primary forms
4%
|
3 |
7%
Other industrial machinery and parts
|
|
Gas, natural and manufactured
4%
|
4 |
5%
Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, n.e.s.
|
|
Vegetables and fruits
3%
|
5 |
5%
Specialised machinery
|
Contact
Euler Hermes
Economic Research Team
research@eulerhermes.com
Manfred Stamer
Senior Economist for Emerging Europe and the Middle East
manfred.stamer@eulerhermes.com