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IRAN
Country risk rating
D4
HIGH RISK for entreprise
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Economic risk
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Business environment risk
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Political risk
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Commercial risk
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Financing risk
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Economic risk
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Business environment risk
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Political risk
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Commercial risk
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Financing risk
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| GDP | USD191.72bn (World ranking 50, World Bank 2020) |
| Population | 83.99mn (World ranking 18, World Bank 2020) |
| Form of state | Theocratic Republic |
| Head of government | Ebrahim RAÏSSI (President) |
| Next elections | 2025 |
- World’s second largest known natural gas reserves and fourth largest oil reserves, which will last over 100 years at current rates of extraction (according to the government)
- Large domestic market
- Large FX reserves, currently providing 9 months import cover.
- Very low external debt obligations
- Occasional conflict between the twin pillars of power – the government and the theocracy.
- Imposition of sharp sanctions and secondary sanctions by the U.S. after Iran withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known commonly as the Iran nuclear deal. This has raised the already high level of geopolitical risk for the region (e.g. a more radical stance of Iran on Israel and Saudi Arabia)
- Regional dynamics are negative. Neighbors include Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Syrian conflict and IS activities provide further uncertainties. Moreover, Israel is perceived as a security threat
- Risk of domestic social unrest and a harsh response by the authorities
- Very high exchange rate vulnerability. Black market rate is about 3-4 times above official rate
- High double-digit inflation
Trade structure by destination/origin
(% of total, 2020)
| Exports | Rank | Imports |
|---|---|---|
|
China
26.3%
|
1 |
26.1%
China
|
|
Iraq
12.9%
|
2 |
13.6%
United Arab Emirates
|
|
Taiwan
12.0%
|
3 |
9.7%
India
|
|
Turkey
6.4%
|
4 |
7.3%
Turkey
|
|
India
6.4%
|
5 |
5.4%
Germany
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Trade structure by product
(% of total, 2020)
| Exports | Rank | Imports |
|---|---|---|
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Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials
37.0%
|
1 |
9.8%
Cereals and cereal preparations
|
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Plastics in primary forms
9.0%
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2 |
8.0%
Road vehicles
|
|
Vegetables and fruits
8.3%
|
3 |
8.0%
Other industrial machinery and parts
|
|
Organic chemicals
6.1%
|
4 |
5.9%
Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, n.e.s.
|
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Iron and steel
5.9%
|
5 |
4.5%
Iron and steel
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LATEST NEWS ABOUT IRAN
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Abolishing fuel subsidies in a green and just transition
19 May
Abolishing fossil fuel subsidies and directing the funds to renewable energy seems like an easy win for the climate. But getting rid of them comes with steep costs for consumers, particularly the poorest households.
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Race to the post Covid-19 recovery: 7 obstacles to overcome
01 April
The pace of vaccination campaigns will drive a multi-speed recovery, keeping divergence high.
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Commodities: higher demand, supply bottlenecks, but no speculation (yet)
11 March
Since the lows of May 2020, commodity prices have increased to record highs.
Contacts
Manfred Stamer
Senior Economist for Emerging Europe and the Middle East