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IRAN
Country risk rating
D4
HIGH RISK for entreprise
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Economic risk
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Business environment risk
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Political risk
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Commercial risk
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Financing risk
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Economic risk
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Business environment risk
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Political risk
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Commercial risk
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Financing risk
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| GDP | USD445.345bn (World ranking 28, World Bank 2019) |
| Population | 82.914mn (World ranking 19, World Bank 2019) |
| Form of state | Theocratic Republic |
| Head of government | Hassan ROHANI (President) |
| Next elections | 2021, Presidential |
- World’s second largest known natural gas reserves and fourth largest oil reserves, which will last over 100 years at current rates of extraction (according to the government)
- Large domestic market
- Large FX reserves, currently providing 9 months import cover.
- Very low external debt obligations
- Occasional conflict between the twin pillars of power – the government and the theocracy.
- Imposition of sharp sanctions and secondary sanctions by the U.S. after Iran withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known commonly as the Iran nuclear deal. This has raised the already high level of geopolitical risk for the region (e.g. a more radical stance of Iran on Israel and Saudi Arabia)
- Regional dynamics are negative. Neighbors include Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Syrian conflict and IS activities provide further uncertainties. Moreover, Israel is perceived as a security threat
- Risk of domestic social unrest and a harsh response by the authorities
- Very high exchange rate vulnerability. Black market rate is about 3-4 times above official rate
- High double-digit inflation
Trade structure by destination/origin
(% of total)
| Exports | Rank | Imports |
|---|---|---|
|
China
32%
|
1 |
34%
United Arab Emirates
|
|
India
13%
|
2 |
19%
China
|
|
Turkey
12%
|
3 |
7%
Turkey
|
|
Japan
8%
|
4 |
6%
Korea, Republic of
|
|
China, Taiwan Province of
8%
|
5 |
5%
Germany
|
Trade structure by product
(% of total)
| Exports | Rank | Imports |
|---|---|---|
|
Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials
60%
|
1 |
12%
Iron and steel
|
|
Organic chemicals
5%
|
2 |
8%
Road vehicles
|
|
Plastics in primary forms
4%
|
3 |
7%
Other industrial machinery and parts
|
|
Gas, natural and manufactured
4%
|
4 |
5%
Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, n.e.s.
|
|
Vegetables and fruits
3%
|
5 |
5%
Specialised machinery
|
LATEST NEWS ABOUT IRAN
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Race to the post Covid-19 recovery: 7 obstacles to overcome
01 April
The pace of vaccination campaigns will drive a multi-speed recovery, keeping divergence high.
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Commodities: higher demand, supply bottlenecks, but no speculation (yet)
11 March
Since the lows of May 2020, commodity prices have increased to record highs.
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Digital-enabling countries proved more resilient to the Covid-19 economic shock
17 February
Our estimates show that an additional point in a country’s 2020 EDI score translated to +0.25pp GDP growth in Q3 2020 y/y.
Contacts
Manfred Stamer
Senior Economist for Emerging Europe and the Middle East