Nicaragua

External financing needs drive risk

D4

SENSITIVE RISK for entreprise

  • Economic risk

  • Business environment risk

  • Political risk

  • Commercial risk

  • Financing risk

GDP USD13.231bn (World ranking 121, World Bank 2016)
Population 6.15 million (World Ranking 109, Worlds Bank 2016)
Form of state Republic
Head of government José Daniel ORTEGA Saavedra (FSLN)
Next elections 2021, presidential
  • Dollarized Economy
  • Above average growth and stable inflation
  • Strong destination for FDI
  • Sound banking system
  • Exposure to US trade policy and sanctions
  • Dwindling oil cooperation with Venezuela
  • Weak political institutions
  • High dependence on remittances, particularly from the US
  • Wide current account deficit

Growth stable and prices anchored

The trend that saw real GDP growth in Nicaragua outperform regional peers for the past 5 years is slowing. In 2017, we expect real GDP to grow by +4.3%, down from +4.7% in 2016.  Inflation is expected to edge up to +3.6% in 2017 and pick up in 2018 as food prices rise. The crawling peg against the dollar has anchored inflation expectations and guaranteed competitive access to Nicaragua's largest export market: the U.S. Real Effective Exchange Rate data (REER) reveals the Nicaraguan Cordoba is stable and not overvalued. Import cover hovers around 4 months. 

The current account deficit remains wide but is expected to stabilize at -9.4% of GDP in 2017. It remains well-financed by Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) at 114%. The dollarization of the economy remains elevated. The IMF estimates that about 88% of deposits and 89% of local loans are foreign currency denominated (mainly USD). This means tighter financial conditions in the US can spill over.

 

Heightened external vulnerabilities

Nicaragua’s economy is intertwined with the US, with exposure well above regional peers. The US is the largest export partner (54%) and an important source of FDI. Between 2014 and 2016, remittances from Nicaraguan workers in the US help offset nearly a quarter of the current account deficit according to the IMF. Thus, more protectionist trade policies and tighter immigration laws in the US could have a detrimental impact.

Moreover, voting irregularities during Daniel Ortega's contested third term election led to the introduction of the Nicaragua Investment Conditionality Act (NICA) in the US Congress. If passed, it could limit Nicaragua’s ability to receive loans from multilateral institutions.

The economic and political turmoil in Venezuela - Nicaragua’s largest FDI partner according to IMF data - poses risk to the Petrocaribe alliance. This agreement allowed Nicaragua to buy Venezuelan oil at preferential rates. In 2016, a revised accord was signed reducing oil imports three fold to 10,000 barrels per day. The reduction in Venezuelan FDI has been largely compensated by increases in non-Venezuelan inflows. That said, winding down the cooperation means a weakened trade account and additional risk to fiscal consolidation as programs are transferred to the budget.

Nicaragua's business climate remains below its regional peers. The World Bank ranks it 127th out 190 countries in its 2017 Ease of Doing Business survey.

Trade structure by destination/origin

(% of total)

Exports Rank Imports
United States 54%
1
20% United States
United States 11%
2
13% China
Venezuela 6%
3
10% Mexico
El Salvador 5%
4
8% Costa Rica
Canada 4%
5
7% Guatemala

Trade structure by product

(% of total)

Exports Rank Imports
Articles of apparel & clothing accessories 29%
1
13% Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials
Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, n.e.s. 15%
2
8% Road vehicles
Coffee, tea, cocoa, spices, and manufactures thereof 8%
3
6% Textile yarn and related products
Meat and meat preparations 8%
4
6% Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, n.e.s.
Gold, non-monetary (excluding gold ores and concentrates) 7%
5
5% Medicinal and pharmaceutical products

  • Low

  • Medium

  • Sensitive

  • High

  • Payments

  • Court proceedings

  • Insolvency proceedings

Contact

Contact Euler Hermes

Economic Research Team

research@eulerhermes.com

Contact Georges Dib  

Economist for Latin America, Spain and Portugal

Georges.Dib@eulerhermes.com

Each step at your side

View our solution