Senegal

Keep growth flowing in

C2

MEDIUM RISK

  • Economic risk

  • Business environment risk

  • Political risk

  • Commercial risk

  • Financing risk

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GDP USD13.61bn (World Ranking 119, World Bank 2015)
Population 15.129mn (World Ranking 71, World Bank 2015)
Form of state Republic
Head of government Macky SALL
Next elections 2019, presidential
  • Relatively good regional and international relations.
  • Membership of the West African Monetary Union (WAMU) and the CFA franc zone provide relative monetary stability, a common currency and access to a regional central bank. Low exchange rate and transfer risk.
  • Considerable debt relief under the HIPC initiative in 2004 and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative in 2006.
  • Market-friendly reforms helped to improve Doing Business ranking
  • Vulnerability to climatic effects on agricultural output and to changes in internationally-determined commodity prices.
  • Uncertain regional influences include a border with Mali.
  • Large current account deficits.
  • Implementation of structural reforms sometimes slow.
  • Despite improvement, business environment still shows a high level of government intervention, a bureaucratic regulatory environment and an inefficient judiciary.

A good pupil

Senegal is engaged in its most robust growth cycle in almost forty years. From 2015, GDP growth accelerated to above +6% and continued at that pace in 2016&17 (6.2% and +7%). This performance was registered despite the heavy reliance on the volatile primary sector (17% of GDP and 70% of the labor force) and difficult times for many other African economies (Africa grew by only +1.4% in 2016).

This growth cycle is supported by a will to free up the economy by implementing market-friendly reforms. As a result, the country’s World Bank Doing Business ranking improved from 166th in 2013 to 141st in 2019 (access to electricity is the major improvement). This more favorable regulatory environment was accompanied by a rise in R&D spending. It doubled from about 0.35% of GDP between 2001 and 2007 (yearly average) to 0.8% in 2016. Moreover, Senegal developed some incubators, such as CTIC for example, to attract African Tech entrepreneurs.

Senegal’s political institutions are among the most developed in the continent. The country is one of the oldest African democracies, and political transition is generally peaceful. A key soundness indicator, the level of government revenue as % of GDP stands at about 25% and is among the best in Africa. This alludes to the country’s ability to rely on itself for funding and not rely heavily on debt, an efficient buffer, given the significant level of public debt (62.7% of GDP in 2018).

The difficulty to grow when oil prices increase

Developing Senegal’s economy supposes to increase its capital stock. This should help to provide the population with much-needed infrastructure - access to water, power, roads, ports, airports - and support urbanization. Yet in an initial stage of development, the need for imported capital goods soars. Importing such high value-added products and exporting low value-added ones (commodities) means a quite high current account deficit (-8% of GDP is expected for 2018).

Moreover, as an oil importer, Senegal is among the most exposed to a sudden surge in the oil price. In 2018, growth was cut to +5% as a result of higher oil prices and the fiscal deficit deteriorated to -5% of GDP (-3.8% of GDP in 2017). In 2019, our oil price scenarios suggest more favorable price conditions, but oil price volatility cannot be excluded thereafter, triggering other boom/bust cycles for Senegal.

 

More has to be done to lengthen the growth cycle

 

Besides some progresses made, the business climate is still weakened by the difficulty to pay taxes. Alongside, the country should make more efforts to ease building permits, in order to make the most of the progresses made in the “starting a business” and “resolving insolvency” items.

Developing Senegal’s economy supposes to increase its capital stock. This should help to provide the population with needed much-needed infrastructure - access to water, power, roads, ports, airports - and support urbanization. Yet in an initial stage of development, the need for imported capital goods soars. Importing such high value-added products and exporting low value-added ones (commodities) mean a quite high current account deficit (-8% of GDP is expected for 2018).

The currency regime offers some protection. The CFA franc is issued by the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO). The CFA franc is pegged to the EUR at a rate of XOF655.96 to 1EUR. Membership of the CFA franc zone engenders low exchange rate and transfer risk. We do not expect a change to the currency system in the forecast period.

The liquidity level is quite low, but still manageable, with 4 months of import cover. Accordingly, Senegal did not need financial assistance from the IMF to cope with lower commodity prices, showing its quite good resilience relative to some regional peers.

Trade structure by destination/origin

(% of total)

Exports Rank Imports
Mali 21%
1
20% China
Switzerland 10%
2
12% France
India 9%
3
7% India
China 5%
4
7% Nigeria
Côte d'Ivoire 4%
5
5% Netherlands

Trade structure by product

(% of total)

Exports Rank Imports
Fish, crustaceans, molluscs and preparations thereof 16%
1
18% Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials
Gold, non-monetary (excluding gold ores and concentrates) 13%
2
8% Cereals and cereal preparations
Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials 11%
3
7% Road vehicles
Inorganic chemicals 9%
4
5% Specialised machinery
Non metallic mineral manufactures, n.e.s. 7%
5
4% Telecommunication and sound recording apparatus

The payment behavior in Senegal is poor, with payment terms usually stating 30 days, while payments are typically made within 60 days in practice.

  • Low

  • Medium

  • Sensitive

  • High

  • Payments

  • Court proceedings

  • Insolvency proceedings

Late payments are susceptible to a 1% interest charge, though a judge can impose a different rate following assessment of the damage suffered by the creditor.

The Civil Law in Senegal is inherited from the French Civil Law, which also features case law and customary law adaptations.

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Collection complexity Senegal

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Contact

Contact Euler Hermes

Economic Research Team

research@eulerhermes.com

Contact Stéphane Colliac

Senior Economist for France and Africa

stephane.colliac@eulerhermes.com 

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