UKRAINE

Political instability weighs on economic recovery

D4

HIGH RISK for enterprise

  • Economic risk

  • Business environment risk

  • Political risk

  • Commercial risk

  • Financing risk

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GDP USD112bn (World ranking 60, World Bank 2017)
Population 44.8mn (World ranking 31, World Bank 2017)
Form of state Republic
Head of government Volodymyr ZELENSKY (President)
Next elections 2024, presidential and legislative
  • Fertile black soil
  • Willingness of International Financial Institutions and bilateral donors to support Ukraine financially
  • Severe conflicts with separatists in east Ukraine ...
  • ... and with Russia (which supports the separatists)
  • History of political instability and government inefficiency; weak constitutional framework
  • High economic dependence on Russia (major trading partner, in particular natural gas supplier)
  • Poor economic policy track record
  • Exchange rate vulnerability
  • Modest foreign exchange reserves, implying significant transfer and convertibility risk

Trade structure by destination/origin

(% of total)

Exports Rank Imports
Russia 13%
1
20% Russia
Turkey 7%
2
10% Germany
China 7%
3
10% China
Egypt 5%
4
6% Belarus
Poland 5%
5
6% Poland

Trade structure by product

(% of total)

Exports Rank Imports
Agricultural products; foodstuff 38%
1
32% Mineral products (incl. oil, gas)
Metals & metal producs 25%
2
16% Machinery
Machinery 10%
3
13% Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
Mineral products (incl. oil, gas) 8%
4
9% Agricultural products; foodstuff
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals 6%
5
7% Plastics & rubber

Contact Euler Hermes

Economic Research Team

research@eulerhermes.com

Country Risk Analyst:

Manfred Stamer

manfred.stamer@eulerhermes.com      

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