The withdrawal notification sent by the UK government to the European Council on March 29th triggered the two-year countdown specified by Art. 50. As a result, we expect the ratification of the EU exit agreement to be held between Fall 2018 and March 2019. Divorce talks will mainly focus on the UK’s outstanding commitments, the end of the UK inclusion in several EU institutions and the rights of EU citizens living in the UK and vice versa.
The UK economy will continue to be resilient during the negotiations period but consumer spending would take a hit from higher inflation and slowdown in wages, and investments could go into wait-and-see mode. Overall, we expect UK GDP growth to slow down to +1.4% in 2017 from +1.8% in 2016 and to +1.0% in 2018.