Brexit me if you can: Companies to suffer the most

Increasing uncertainty around Brexit will affect sentiment and might delay investment decisions. We expect GDP to grow by +2.1% in 2016 and +1.9% in 2017, 0.1pp below our previous forecasts due to uncertainty.

In case of a Brexit, companies' turnover growth could be halved, if an FTA with the EU is signed, and contract without one.

Three transmission channels explain this doom and gloom scenario for companies: direct export losses, falling margins (due to higher input and financing costs) and divestment.

Export losses could reach GBP30bn in the worst case scenario: it would take 10 years for the UK to fill the gap. Margins could fall by up to 2 points on the back of higher input costs and tighter financing conditions. Last, up to GBP210bn of foreign investment could be lost in the next 4 years following the referendum, with the financial sector being hit the most.The financial, automotive, machinery and equipment, chemicals, agrifood, textile and energy sectors would be affected the most.

Brexit me if you can: Companies to suffer the most - Report