2016-17: Tectonic shifts and risk of local tremors

Global growth will decelerate to +2.4% in 2016, down from +2.7% in 2015. It could edge up to +2.8% in 2017, if regional tectonic plates continue to show resilience: improved growth in the US, and Europe, and stabilizing emerging markets. Earthquakes could come from: (i) a nudged policy stance in post-elections US; (ii) an unbalanced rebalancing in China; (iii) more political risk in Europe; as well as (iv) a disappointing come back of emerging markets after two years of belt-tightening. Three global tickets to watch: (i) Bankruptcies will rise by +1% in 2016 and +2% in 2017 with a higher cost overall; (ii) trade will disappoint (+3.1% only in 2017), still missing -USD1970bn in value terms compared to 2014; and (iii) last, commodities could surprise us once again.