Global Economic Outlook update (Q4 2018) : Closing the Loop in 2019

5 min

Global growth to remain on a healthy trajectory despite the multiplication of risks:

  1. Self-correcting mechanisms: US fiscal and monetary fuses to preserve  the economic circuit from systemic unsustainability
  2. Fine-tuning policy tools: Fueling demand in the short-term and repairing supply in the medium-term will be the leitmotiv of China and Europe
  3. Technical inspection: The market will continue to differentiate defective emerging economies from sound ones

Macro assumptions: Brent oil prices at 69 USD/bbl in 2019; 65 USD/bbl in 2020. EUR/USD at 1.17 at the end of 2019, 1.24 end 2020; emerging currencies to stabilize in H1 2019

Inflation and interest rates: The peak of inflation is behind us in advanced economies but there are rising price pressures in the emerging markets post currency depreciation. We expect US 10Y interest rate to be at 3.0% at the end of 2019 and 2.8% at the end of 2020