Eurozone exports rebounded in May: +6.1% y/y in value terms from +4.6% in April and +2.1% in March. Intra-Eurozone exports increased by +4.9% y/y vs. +3.8% in April. Extra-Eurozone exports increased by +7.1% y/y vs. +5.3% in April. Export gains YTD stood at EUR27.2bn for intra-Eurozone trade and EUR46.1bn for extra-Eurozone trade. Extra-Eurozone exports registered a strong rebound for machinery and transport equipment (+7% y/y after +0.8% in April). However, advanced surveys continue to suggest depressed export new orders in the industry sector in June (a negative balance of opinion of -14.1, the lowest level since 2013). Overall, we expect Eurozone exports to grow by +2.2% in volume terms in 2019 (after +3.2% in 2018) and by +2.6% in value terms (after +4.6% in 2018), given the downside pressures on prices likely to be exerted by the unusual stock accumulation at the global level. Export prices contracted by -0.1% q/q in Q1 2019.
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Weekly Export Risk Outlook 17 July 2019