Kenya: Strong growth and manageable twin deficits

Kenya benefits from a virtuous circle. Real GDP growth in 2016 was +6%, continuing the high annual growth rates recorded after the political/social crisis years of 2008 (+0.2%) and 2009 (+3.3%). EH forecasts growth to improve further to +6.5% in 2017 and +7% in 2017, boosted by ongoing reforms. Such rates compare favourably with a long-term (ten years) annual average of +5.4%. 

This trajectory is supported by improvements in infrastructure but is dependent on enhanced domestic and border security. Positive recent developments in Kenya are well described by improvement in the World Bank’s doing business ranking (92nd, up +37 places from 2015 survey). The biggest steps forward were made on starting a business and resolving insolvencies components.