Belarus: Very low foreign exchange reserves

Deep macroeconomic imbalances stemming from economic overheating under ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policy in 2010 pushed the economy into a severe currency and external liquidity crisis in 2011 from which it has yet to recover.

Real GDP growth has been above the average of Emerging Europe for many years until 2011, but fell to just +1.5% in 2012 as the impact of the deep financial crisis of 2011 took full effect. We expect GDP growth to recover only gradually to +1.8% in 2013 and +2% in 2014.