The oil-dependency burden
Ecuador faces downside risks due to constrained export and fiscal revenues, as a consequence of rebounded-but-still-low crude oil prices. Oil accounts for around 30% of government revenues. After sinking by -1.5% in 2016 - the first recession in almost 2 decades - real GDP growth will return to positive territory in the forecast horizon, as uncertainties driven by the political cycle ease. EH expects the Ecuadorian economy to grow by a modest +0.6% in 2017 and +1.4% in 2018, far below the 2010-2014 average of +5.2%.