Game of Trade: Unbent, Unbowed, Unbroken?

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Summary:

  • Global trade growth is back because it’s the first time since 2010 that the 3 growth engines (China, Europe, US) are ignited at the same time, and because of the return of inflation (including of commodities) which give more pricing power to companies.

  • By 2018,​ the eurozone will be the top export performer with 3 times the gains recorded by China, 4 times the US.

  • Generally, the third phase of globalization will be fueled by cash: liquidities are abundant thanks to monetary policies; The digital and services revolution; and regional industrial policies and trade agreements.

  • Financial protectionism is the real issue as regulation, politics and risk intolerance has regionalized capital flows. The end of Central Bank interventions will reveal growing balkanization and increase trade finance costs.

  • Yet protectionism is an American story, not a global one: Only 400 new protectionist measures this year, compared to 759 last year. Yet, the US took 16 new protectionist measures against China, against 4 only last year.​


game-of-trade-economic-outlook-presentation-nov2017.pdfgame-of-trade-economic-outlook-presentation-nov2017.pdf

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