Russia: Sharp growth slowdown

Growth weakens sharply in 2013, modest recovery in 2014. Insolvencies stabilise at moderate level.

Monetary policy is likely to ease as inflation falls. Exchange rate risk remains on the cards. Banking sector remains vulnerable.

Fiscal position is unproblematic. Current account narrows but will remain in surplus in 2013-2014. External debt buredn is manageable. Ample foreign exchange reserves.