It is still all about demography.
Our proprietary Trade Momentum Index shows that Q2 is likely to see an even stronger contraction.
The impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the U.S. retail industry is unprecedented and will have lasting consequences on all segments.
The massive, prolonged intervention of central banks on global government bonds will remain a major factor.
Global trade could remain below 90% of its pre-crisis level even after lockdowns are lifted.
Epidemiological data suggest that few countries are already in a position to start deconfining.
We expect significant volatility around our central Brent crude price forecast of USD 41/bbl as an unprecedented inventory build battles with a hope-driven news flow.
Maxime Lemerle, Head of Sector and Insolvency Research at Euler Hermes, explains.
Georges Dib, Economist at Euler Hermes, explains.
Alexis Garatti, Euler Hermes' Head of Economic Research, explains.
The increase in major failures accelerated in the last quarter of 2019 with a record number of cases and a new high in terms of severity.
We have revised down our global trade growth forecast for 2020 by -0.5pp to +1.3%.
Potential weekly losses of exports of goods and services to China could amount to USD26bn, with Hong Kong, the U.S., Japan, South Korea and Germany the most exposed economies.
Inflation expectations are best revealed by those who have skin in the game.
In a unanimous decision the Federal Open Market Committee voted to maintain the overnight Federal Funds Rate at between 1.5% and 1.75%.