Guatemala: Fiscal and institutional challenges for the new government

​Real GDP growth is expected to recover to the long-term average, with a +3.5% rise in 2016 and +3.8% in 2017. Private consumption which accounts for 84% of GDP will remain the main engine of growth, supported by low inflation and accommodative monetary policy. 

Consumer prices are expected to remain within the inflation range of 4% +/-1pp in the foreseeable future, while credit should continue to expand. The U.S.’s recovery drove exports, remittances, tourism, and FDI inflows. Guatemala will continue to benefit if oil prices remain low. ​