Our standardized credit risk assessment (TRIBBot) for roughly 22,000 German SMEs and MidCaps shows that median credit risk significantly decreased with the economic expansion in recent years but started to show the first signs of a trend reversal in recent quarters.
Central Europe: Inflation higher than expected at the end of 2019
Whilst the European Central Bank is drudging to fuel inflation in the Eurozone, consumer price growth surprised on the upside in December in Poland (up to 3.4% from 2.6% in November), Hungary (to 4.0% from 3.4%), Czechia (to 3.2% from 3.1%) and Romania (to 4.0% from 3.8%).
What to expect in 2020-21: Defending growth at all costs
2019 was marked by record high uncertainty and two recessions, though a broad-based recession was avoided, thanks to swift and sizeable monetary policy reactions. Amid high social tensions, rapidly multiplying political risks and rising climate change risks, 2020 could represent a turning point in policies to defend growth at all costs.