The election season has started in Africa with polls in late December in Togo, Madagascar and Congo DR. The latter still has to deliver its result, but each was contested in some way. During the year, other polls may be raising more questions than answers, with elections to come no later than February in Nigeria and Senegal. Algeria (April), South Africa (May) and Tunisia (expected in December) are other key polls to be organized this year, while the Côte d’Ivoire 2020 presidential election is already tomorrow. Given the current low growth period in major economies (Nigeria, South Africa and Algeria) and increasing social protests, these elections could generate tensions. And in countries with longstanding leaders or less democratic forms of government, social tensions have also risen, particularly in oil exporters (Sudan, Libya, Gabon…). The rise of violence is also worrisome, particularly those involving Boko Haram or the Islamic State in Central or North Africa. More than ever, good governance will be crucial to stick with high growth (Morocco, Kenya and Rwanda are among the best pupils).
Download the PDF
Weekly Export Risk Outlook 9 January 2019