Economic growth slowed to +0.3% q/q in Q3 after a strong +0.9% in Q2. The main culprits were private investment (-0.8% q/q), households consumption (+0.3% q/q) and exports (+0.1% q/q). Government expenditures remain the major growth driver, mainly in the form of public investment (+3.4% q/q). Looking ahead, weaker business sentiment in the manufacturing sector (the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.3 points in November from 58.3 in October) associated with a slowdown in gross operating profits growth in Q3 point to a continued weakness in private investment. Moreover, a weaker housing market and a modest growth of income will act as a drag on consumption. In that context, we expect economic growth to decelerate to +2.5% in 2019 (from an estimated +3% in 2018).
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Weekly Export Risk Outlook 12 December 2018