Brazil: A few inflation clouds

5 min
Georges Dib
Georges Dib Economist for Latin America, Spain and Portugal

In line with market expectations, inflation rose to +4.4% y/y (+1.3% m/m) in June, a 15-month high and up from +2.9% y/y in May (+0.4% m/m). While the BRL depreciation (-3% in June after -7.4% in May) continued weighing on the Brazilian economy, the price rise of perishable goods (food inflation accelerated from 0.3% m/m in May to 2% in June) can be interpreted as a consequence of the truckers’ movement. Indeed, significant shortages in food and beverages spread throughout the country. Headline inflation was also boosted by higher gasoline prices which chime with the global rise in oil prices. As inflation was driven by one-off shocks, and since oil prices should stabilize going forward, we expect the rise in inflation to be more gradual from now on. Yet, activity data releases show market tensions and the truckers’ strike hit the recovery: industrial production decreased by -10.9% m/m in May (after growing +0.8% in April) and consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in almost a year.