The monthly economic activity index posted a -3.3% y/y contraction (i.e. compared to November 2018) after a -3.4% contraction in October. Currently, real GDP is back at a level last seen two years ago. There was a slight recovery in November compared to October (+1%) in both mining and non-mining GDP. But December surveys show business confidence and consumer sentiment have deteriorated further. Hence, while protests have eased in December and the supply shock should gradually fade, economic actors remain anxious due to the high political uncertainty we forecast for 2020. It should weigh on economic outcomes with protests reigniting ahead of three political milestones this year: the April constitutional referendum, the October local elections, and potential elections of the constitutional convention. Moreover, Euler Hermes forecasts widening fiscal and current account deficits in 2020. Overall, short-term and medium term country risk has deteriorated in Chile.
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Weekly Export Risk Outlook 8 January 2020