China: The G-20 test

3 min

Industrial profit growth continued to ease in October, posting +13.6% y/y in January-October after +14.7% in January-September. This follows a mixed batch of activity indicators. Retail sales expansion slowed to +8.6% y/y in October (from +9.2% in September). Investment and industrial production growth improved slightly but remained low by historical standards. Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the G-20 meeting at the end of this week as President Xi and President Trump are expected to meet to discuss about trade. Risks to the outlook have risen this week after Trump’s statement about proceeding on implementing the next wave of tariffs, especially 25% on USD200bn of imports from China. Note that if such measures were implemented, global trade growth could be reduced by -2pp and China’s economic growth by -0.3pp over a two-year horizon.