China: Surfing against the wind

5 min
Mahamoud Islam
Mahamoud Islam Senior Economist for Asia

Last month has been tough for China with a drop in the stock market, a depreciation of the currency and a rise in trade related risks. Despite these bad news, the economy managed to show resilience. A rise in foreign exchange reserves (+USD1.5bn to USD3,112bn in June) suggests that capital outflows were contained. A continued producer price reflation (+4.7% y/y in June) points to still solid growth in industrial profits. In that context, we estimate that economic growth rose by a robust +6.7% in H1. We have penciled in growth of +6.5% in H2, reflecting tight financial regulation and a somewhat slower export performance. Yet, risks are tilted to the downside with a 10% tariff on USD200bn of Chinese exports looming.