Emerging market: Alice in Wonderland

5 min

The growth momentum improved a little further in Emerging Markets (EM). The EH aggregate manufacturing PMI for EM edged up to a new high of 52.3 points in December, from a revised 52.2 in November. A sub-index for oil importing economies rose to 54.6, the best figure since May 2011, reflect¬ing that current oil prices are benign for large industrial producers. But it also shows that an unexpected rise in oil prices is a key downside risk to the current ‘Alice in Wonderland’ environment. Look¬ing at regions, Emerging Europe is taking the lead (for example, the PMI improved from 52.9 to 54.9 in Turkey and from 58.7 to 59.8 in the Czech Republic) in accordance with a good cyclical momentum in the Eurozone. Asia exhibited also strong indexes, with Singapore’s manufacturing PMI hitting a new high (54.6) since Novem¬ber 2006 and India’s PMI increasing to 54.7 (best index since 2012) from 52.6. Latin America is showing indexes coherent with growth, albeit at a slower pace: 52.4 in Brazil in December (after 53.5 in November) and 51.7 in Mexico (after 52.4). In a nutshell, growth is everywhere.