EU: Further trade diversion from the U.S.-China trade dispute

EU: Further trade diversion from the U.S.-China trade dispute

Year-to-date, trade flows between the U.S. and China decreased by -EUR45bn with -EUR33bn lower U.S. imports from China. However, the EU continues to benefit from the trade diversion through higher export flows to both the U.S. and China (+EUR28bn to the U.S., more than double compared to the same period in 2018, and +EUR10bn to China, almost the double). But the fall in trade flows between the U.S. and China has not been fully compensated: in total a loss of -EUR16bn compared to the same period of last year was registered. Brexit is also disturbing EU trade flows with a rebound in EU exports in July (+5% m/m) as UK companies accelerated their contingency stock­piling. Year-to-date the EU gained +EUR2.4bn in exports to the UK, with France being the top exporter (+EUR2.1bn vs. a loss of -EUR2.5bn for Germany). Export gains for European companies should moderate going forward as the trough in global activity should be reached in Q1 2020 (incl. a technical recession in the UK at the turn of the year).