The balance of opinion of industrials in the Eurozone is in negative territory since the start of 2019, albeit it improved slightly in August. The number of companies in the Eurozone which expect contracting export order books has been slightly lower in August, but the balance remains in negative territory (-13%). The soft demand and the high prevailing global uncertainty keep companies’ stocks at “higher levels than usual times”. The divergence with the services sector persisted as companies in this sector remain more optimistic, even if the balance of opinion has softened further (below +10% for the first time since July 2015). The financial situation in the next 12 months as judged by consumers has improved in August while their saving intentions decreased. We expect consumers to continue to keep afloat the services and construction sectors while the manufacturing sector will remain in recession, driven by the global trade in goods contraction since the start of 2019.
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Weekly Export Risk Outlook 4 September 2019