Eurozone: Rising risk of an extended soft-patch ?

5 min
Ana Boata
Ana Boata Senior Economist for Europe

The Composite PMI for industry and services in the Eurozone posted its fourth consecutive decline in May, falling to 54.1 points. In Germany, the Composite Index fell to 53.1, with both sectors contributing to the slowdown, though the industry index remained at a comfortable level of 56.8. The sharp drop in the French Composite PMI to 54.5 meanwhile should not be overvalued given that the deterioration came solely from the services sector while the industrial sector improved notably. In contrast to the weaker results for the two Eurozone heavyweights, the PMIs for the remaining countries rose in May. Today’s survey results are casting further doubt on the expected reacceleration in Eurozone economic momentum after a disappointing start to the year (+0.4% q/q GDP growth in Q1). Downside risks to our +2.3% GDP growth forecast in 2018 have increased, given a weakened external environment (protec¬tionism, geopolitical risks, rising oil prices). Yet, resilient global demand and the weaker EUR should continue to support exports and investment and keep GDP growth at a robust level.