Germany: Domestic demand ok, but export engine stutters

1 min

The German industry has got off to a poor start in the third quarter. Seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by -1.1% in July compared with the previous month. The contraction in July took place on a broad basis. The strongest decline was in investment goods, which fell by -2.5% m/m. July´s order data in manufacturing disappointed, too. New orders fell by -0.9% seasonally adjusted compared to the previous month. The discrepancy between domestic and foreign orders is remarkable here. While domestic orders rose by +2.4% m/m, orders from abroad fell by -3.4%. The latest foreign trade data also fits into this picture. Exports in July fell by just under -1% compared with the previous month, while imports rose sharply by almost +3%. Obviously the German domestic demand is still going well, while the export engine has stuttered. A major reason for this is certainly the ongoing trade conflict with the U.S.