The German economy contracted slightly in the third quarter. Seasonally adjusted real GDP declined by -0.2% q/q. While investment and government consumption contributed positively to the economic development, private consumption actually declined. Against the backdrop of the still very positive employment trend this is a bit surprising. Net exports dampened the economic development for the third time in a row. We expect the German economy to pick up again in the current quarter. The automotive sector, which was largely responsible for the decline in industrial production in the third quarter, is already showing first signs of a gradual improvement. We also assume that private consumption will pick up again, driven by a sustained rise in employment and moderate wage growth. How strong the expected rebound will be, however, depends not least on how much, for example, Italy's budget dispute with the EU and the smoldering trade conflict with the U.S. will weigh on economic sentiment. We have revised our growth forecast for 2018 from a calendar-adjusted +2.1% to +1.7%.
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Weekly Export Risk Outlook 14 November 2018