Germany: IFO test with light and shade

5 min

After the temporary stabilization last month, the sentiment in the German economy deteriorated further in June. The Ifo Business Climate Index fell by 0.5 points. At 101.8 points, it is now at its lowest level in just over a year. A positive aspect of the latest survey results is that companies' assessment of their business expectations has not deteriorated further. Overall, it is still slightly positive. The decline in the overall index is solely attributable to the less favorable assessment of the current situation. There is no doubt that the downside risks for this year's real GDP growth forecast of +2.2% (working-day adjusted) have increased due to the weak start to the second quarter – industrial production and new orders disappointed in April. However, we remain confident that economic momentum will pick up somewhat in the course of this year, as the domestic economic conditions for a continuation of the upswing remain very good: The earnings situation in the corporate sector is positive, high capacity utilization promotes investment demand and job creation generates additional income – just to name a few.